I feel kinda weird this morning. I am not sure what it is, but something is bothering me. Other than that, I am fine, I guess. Maybe the market is unsettling me. The VIX is up, which means the S&P 500 will head in the opposite direction. I also missed a trade this morning by a penny and that stock is now up over 3%, even in this otherwise unsettling market.
Yes, I think my missing that trade bothers me. I know it shouldn’t, but it does. I could have had it just above my bid, but I thought it would go down again and it hasn’t. My other trades are following the market, and that means I don’t have much to do. My stops and sells are in, so it is a waiting game. I will check in now and then, but, mostly, I am off to work on other projects around the house.
- Conservatives in the U.S. Senate are unlikely to stop passage of a two-year budget bill this week, with some Republicans expected to join Democrats in the Senate in voting for the measure.
- Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index continued to improve sharply in December.
Germany’s economic sentiment is now the highest it has been since 2006. A quick mathematical calculation tells me it is the highest it has been in seven years. Not only that, but the index smashed expectations.
- The index was reported at +62.0, which was above the consensus estimate for a reading of 55 and also above November’s reading of +54.6.
Germany’s economic sentiment is positively on the move and it has been since April.
- Oct: +52.8, Sep: +49.6, August: +42.0, July: +36.3, June: +38.5, May: 36.4, April: +36.3.
It appears the same is happening in the Eurozone as well.
Separately, the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator surged to 68.3, which was well above the consensus for 60.9 and above last month’s reading of 60.2.
Going back to April as well, one sees the strong trend toward belief. Remember, perception is often reality, especially when it comes to economies and the market.
- Oct: 59.1, Sept: 58.6, August: 44.0, July: 32.8, June: 30.6, May: 27.6, April: 24.9.
Reality for the Eurozone is reflected in the mirror the US uses to gauge the reality of it economic status – consumerism. And that which reflects the strength of consumerism are big-ticket sales.
- European car registrations rose 1.2% Y/Y in November to put together a third consecutive month of gains on the continent.
- IHS forecasts the global automobile industry will produce 85M sales in 2014, up 3.7% from this year’s level.
- Based on the same trend of strong growth in China and the U.S., Deutsche Bank has an even higher estimate for 2014 sales of 87.4M to rep 4% growth.
Yup, cars are big-ticket sales and they are on the increase in Europe, China, and the US. So, despite the downturn today, expect the market to change directions when the FOMC ends and the breathless media lets go of that bone. Stick with the plan, which is to buy on the fear and sell on … well … sell whenever you reach your profit goals.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
