* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It was very quiet in the markets overnight, what with the Christmas holiday on Wednesday. Look for thin volumes and lackluster trading conditions the rest of this week and next week.

In overnight trading the featured news was Japan’s Nikkei stock index hitting a six-year high, as investors there have cheered the stimulative monetary measures by the Bank of Japan. On the year, the Nikkei is up 54%. That’s a huge yearly gain, which is actually not healthy and certainly not sustainable. Keep a close eye on the Nikkei in early 2014. It could be that stock index will be the leader to the downside for topping action in the other major world stock indexes.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, durable goods orders, the U.S. house price index, new residential sales, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (No major headline risk today, and with holidays approaching, trading volumes are likely to wane.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and poked to another record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 1,824.30 and then at 1,835.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,817.10 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices near steady early today and poked to another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,569.25 and then at 3,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 3,541.00 and then at 3,525.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and near the record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 16,250 and then at 16,300. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 16,220 and then at 16,200. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129 19/32 and then at 130 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 129 even and then at 128 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and hit a fresh 3.5-month low overnight. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.17.5 and then at Monday’s high of 123.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.09.0 and then at 123.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The greenback bulls have recently gained some upside momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the Monday’s high of 80.750 and then at last week’s high of 81.005. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.630 and then at Monday’s low of 80.460. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at last week’s high of $99.49 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $98.53 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly lower overnight. Grain markets have seen the holiday doldrums set in. Futures markets close early today. Technically, corn and wheat futures bears are in full control. Soybean bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.