* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
It was quiet in the markets overnight, the day after the Christmas holiday. Look for thin volumes and lackluster trading conditions on Friday and most of next week.
The U.S. stock indexes continue on their bull runs, with new record or multi-year highs scored again in overnight trading. The strength in equities markets worldwide has “sucked all the air out of the room” for other investment asset classes. This situation cannot go on indefinitely, but that is presently of little comfort to the bulls in other asset classes.
China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 7.6% in 2013, a central planning official said Thursday. That is just above what the Chinese government forecast the growth rate to be. However, the Chinese stock market dropped overnight on continued worried about higher short-term interest rates in China.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report.
Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (No major headline risk today, as holidays are keeping many traders and investors away and making trading volumes thin.)
(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.
–Jim Wyckoff
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and poked to another record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 1,832.00 and then at 1,840.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,817.10 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and poked to another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,578.75 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,570.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,561.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,400 and then at 16,450. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,300 and then at Tuesday’s low of 16,245. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 129 even and then at Tuesday’s high of 129 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 128 17/32 and then at 128 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today and hit a fresh 3.5-month low overnight. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.08.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 123.17.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 122.30.0 and then at 122.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The greenback bulls have recently gained some upside momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 80.780 and then at last week’s high of 81.005. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 80.630 and then at this week’s low of 80.460. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today but did hit a two-month high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $99.65 and then at $100.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $98.53 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were closed overnight due to the Christmas holiday. Grain markets have seen the holiday doldrums set in. Technically, corn and wheat futures bears are in full control. Soybean bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.
