Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/30/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 12/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,841.07, down 0.02%) absolute price opened little changed on Monday, fell slightly below Friday’s lows by 10:30 am ET, but recovered in the afternoon to finish little changed. SPX closed near the open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume rose 11% to a level 36% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE eased modestly lower on Monday, after rising to a new high on Friday and thereby reconfirming its preexisting major price uptrend.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE also declined slightly on Monday, after rising to a new high on Friday and thereby reconfirming its preexisting major price uptrend.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) turned upward since 12/12/13, but it remained below its previous highs of 2012 and 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 turned upward since recent lows on 12/13/13 and 12/17/13, but both remained below their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs last week.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory last reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/26/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/26/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 12/19/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 12/26/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 12/13/13 by falling back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 12/26/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 12/26/13 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 12/11/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. UUP has remained systematically bearish most of the time since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/30/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price is systematically neutral. USO currently is above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 12/19/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.50, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/3/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.28, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/3/13, and SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
21.08% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
5.40% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
4.41% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
6.98% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.53% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.59% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.07% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.92% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
1.45% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.85% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.23% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.30% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.01% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.95% , WAT , WATERS
0.33% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
0.98% , CBS , CBS CORP.
0.42% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.25% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.36% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.21% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
1.30% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
0.47% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.26% , BCR , C R BARD
0.58% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.43% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.27% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.46% , K , KELLOGG
0.09% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.12% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
0.09% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.52% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.99% , HAR , Harman International
-2.15% , UIS , UNISYS
-0.13% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.10% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.53% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.83% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.81% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.47% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.58% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.22% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.67% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.18% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.63% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.40% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-0.19% , AON , AON
-0.75% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.02% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-0.08% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.09% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.10% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.05% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.01% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-0.02% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.02% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.58% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.99% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.59% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.42% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.41% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.14% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.01% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.92% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.71% , Italy Index, EWI
0.69% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.68% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.68% , France Index, EWQ
0.63% , India PS, PIN
0.58% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.58% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.55% , Canada Index, EWC
0.55% , Spain Index, EWP
0.54% , Germany Index, EWG
0.54% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.52% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.51% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.50% , Networking, IGN
0.49% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.49% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.48% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.45% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.44% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.43% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.43% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.42% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.40% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.37% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.34% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.30% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.30% , Austria Index, EWO
0.30% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.30% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.29% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.29% , Australia Index, EWA
0.28% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.28% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.28% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.27% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.27% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.27% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.25% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.24% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.24% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.24% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.23% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.22% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.22% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.21% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.21% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.19% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.19% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.19% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.17% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.17% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.16% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.15% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.15% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.13% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.13% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.12% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.11% , Water Resources, PHO
0.11% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.11% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.11% , Dividend International, PID
0.10% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.10% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.09% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.09% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.09% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.09% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.08% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.07% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.07% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.04% , Global 100, IOO
0.04% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.03% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.03% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.03% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.02% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.02% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.00% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.01% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.01% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.02% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.02% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.02% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.02% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.05% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.05% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.06% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.06% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.08% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.09% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.09% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.09% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.09% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.10% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.10% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.10% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.10% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.11% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.13% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.15% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.16% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.18% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.20% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.20% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.20% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.22% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.25% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.26% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.30% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.35% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.36% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.58% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.60% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.67% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.71% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.72% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.75% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.77% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.81% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.87% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.89% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.95% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.48% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.18% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1844.89, high of 12/27/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1786.83, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1677.80, 200-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
