NOTE: I am out of the office this week. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen will produce my reports. I’ll be back at work full throttle next Monday morning. Happy New Year!–Jim
The STOCK INDEXES
The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3510.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends this year’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 3587.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3510.08. Second support is December’s low crossing at 3415.25.
The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1801.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 1839.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1801.38. Second support is December’s low crossing at 1755.00.
March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 125-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130-11. First support is December’s low crossing at 128-01. Second support is weekly support crossing at 125-29.
ENERGY MARKETS
February Nymex crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November’s low, the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 100.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.28. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 96.52.
CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week’s high, the reaction low crossing at 79.50 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December’s low, November’s high crossing at 81.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is December’s high crossing at 81.18. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 81.73. First support is December’s low crossing at 79.50. Second support is October’s low crossing at 79.35.
GRAINS
March corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last week’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last week’s high, December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes below December’s low would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4 later this winter. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.40 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.49 3/4. First support is December’s low crossing at 4.18 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.
March wheat was mostly steady overnight, as it remains poised to extend the decline off October’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.92 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.26 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.08 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.26 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.99 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.92 1/4.
March soybeans were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 12.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November’s low, the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 13.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 13.42. First support is the reaction low crossing at 12.99 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 12.56 1/4.
