Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/22/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/22/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA.
Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF (XLE) absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 1/22/14, when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose to a new high on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 1/22/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its highest levels of the previous 13 years on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) absolute price rose to a new high on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400 Index ETF (MDY) absolute price rose to a new high on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,844.86), up 0.06%, absolute price opened higher but reversed to the downside immediately. By 11:02 am ET, SPX had fallen into minus territory. An afternoon rally saved the day from a loss once again. The S&P 500 closed slightly below the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and slightly above the closing prices of previous trading day.
NYSE total volume fell 10% to a level 4% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 301, down from the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14. These numbers are still far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 continue to lag the price index itself. Both were unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 1/22/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its highest levels of the previous 13 years on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/9/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. More recently, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/15/14 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/15/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/22/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/22/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
17.59% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
4.68% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
4.56% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
4.77% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
3.30% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
2.27% , XLNX , XILINX
2.81% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
1.98% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.55% , PIN , India PS, PIN
0.47% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
4.29% , AMGN , AMGEN
2.49% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
3.47% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.18% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
5.26% , TXT , TEXTRON
2.67% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.96% , IGN , Networking, IGN
2.94% , LM , LEGG MASON
1.71% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
3.12% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
1.45% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
4.04% , MBI , MBIA
8.56% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
2.37% , KBH , KB HOME
1.53% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.95% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.62% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
0.16% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
0.76% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.56% , AN , AUTONATION
0.48% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.61% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
0.95% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.03% , COH , COACH
-3.00% , BMS , BEMIS
-11.99% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-3.87% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-2.32% , KSS , KOHLS
-3.17% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-0.37% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-2.29% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-3.47% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-1.29% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-6.35% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-2.01% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-2.37% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-2.68% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-0.80% , INTU , INTUIT
-1.12% , AON , AON
-2.25% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-3.28% , IBM , IBM
-1.74% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.89% , IP , INTL PAPER
-1.15% , ASH , ASHLAND
-0.95% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-2.59% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-0.66% , XRX , XEROX
-0.25% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.39% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.49% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-1.65% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.49% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-1.77% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-0.41% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.42% , IR , INGER RAND
-0.77% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.74% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.40% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.68% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.56% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.55% , India PS, PIN
1.46% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.44% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.33% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.28% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.27% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.27% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.18% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.17% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.14% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.08% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.07% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.04% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.02% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.02% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.99% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.96% , Networking, IGN
0.79% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.78% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.66% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.66% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.65% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.62% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.56% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.54% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.53% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.53% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.52% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.51% , Russia MV, RSX
0.51% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.49% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.49% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.49% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.48% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.47% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.47% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.46% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.46% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.44% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.43% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.42% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.42% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.41% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.40% , Energy Global, IXC
0.39% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.38% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.36% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.36% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.35% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.34% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.33% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.32% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.31% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.30% , Water Resources, PHO
0.27% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.27% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.26% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.26% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.26% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.26% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.26% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.25% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.25% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.25% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.24% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.24% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.20% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.20% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.19% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.19% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.19% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.19% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.19% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.18% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.17% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.17% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.16% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.16% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.15% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.15% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.14% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.14% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.14% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.13% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.12% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.12% , Austria Index, EWO
0.10% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.09% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.09% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.08% , Australia Index, EWA
0.07% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.07% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.05% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.04% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.02% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.02% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.01% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.00% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.00% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.02% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.03% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , Dividend International, PID
-0.07% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.10% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.11% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.11% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.12% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.16% , Global 100, IOO
-0.16% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.17% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.19% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.21% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.22% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.24% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.24% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.25% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.25% , France Index, EWQ
-0.28% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.29% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.30% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.33% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.37% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.37% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.43% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.66% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.73% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.74% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.81% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.95% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.97% , Materials SPDR, XLB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1810.99, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.81, 200-day SMA
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
