Many stock prices crossed below 50-day SMAs.

The following absolute prices crossed below 50-day SMAs on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish):

Dow-Jones Industrial Average
Dow-Jones Transportation Average
S&P 500
S&P Mid Cap 400 ETF (MDY)
Industrial (XLI) stock sector ETF
Financial (XLF) stock sector ETF
Materials (XLB) stock sector ETF

Industrial (XLI) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

Utilities (XLU) stock sector ETF absolute price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/24/14, when it crossed below its 50-day SMA.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,790.29), down 2.09%, absolute price gapped down on the open and continued to fall nearly all day. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of previous 24 trading days. The S&P 500 absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

NYSE total volume rose 16% to a level 32% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to -24, its lowest level in 6 weeks. Previously, the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14 was far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to a new high for the S&P 500 large-capitalization stock price index as of 1/15/14.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 remain weak relative to the price index itself. Both have been unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs, and both have turned notably weak relative to the S&P 500 since year end 12/31/13.

Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 1/24/14, suggesting a possible medium-term downside correction.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 1/24/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its highest levels of the previous 13 years on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/24/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/24/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 1/22/14 and remains systematically bullish.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/22/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/24/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that underperformance may resume.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.88% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.24% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
3.88% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
4.30% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.93% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.08% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
1.03% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
1.91% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.88% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
1.20% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
0.30% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
0.78% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
2.17% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
0.13% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
0.74% , MRK , MERCK & CO
0.14% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.21% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
0.04% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.29% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.86% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
0.32% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-15.17% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-14.79% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-7.69% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-2.99% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-3.87% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-5.26% , AVP , AVON
-5.77% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-2.07% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-8.46% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-2.45% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.79% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.33% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.61% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-5.83% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-3.11% , XLI , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-5.58% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-3.36% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.19% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-5.22% , UIS , UNISYS
-6.90% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.94% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-3.03% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-4.45% , STT , STATE STREET
-3.86% , DHR , DANAHER
-3.65% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-2.15% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-5.05% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-2.49% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-5.90% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-3.31% , AES , AES
-2.50% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.65% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-2.46% , ALTR , ALTERA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.24% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.65% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.41% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.40% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.29% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.21% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.17% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.04% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.19% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.34% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.40% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.52% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.55% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.66% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.73% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.79% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.91% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.03% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.12% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.12% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.20% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.22% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.25% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.25% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.27% , Networking, IGN
-1.47% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.49% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.52% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.57% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.84% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.84% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.87% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.92% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.92% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.93% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.94% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.95% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.95% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.97% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.99% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.99% , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.00% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-2.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.03% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-2.06% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.07% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.09% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.11% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.11% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.11% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-2.12% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-2.12% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.12% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-2.13% , Energy Global, IXC
-2.13% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-2.14% , Energy DJ, IYE
-2.15% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-2.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-2.16% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-2.16% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-2.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-2.17% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.18% , Australia Index, EWA
-2.18% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-2.21% , Dividend International, PID
-2.23% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-2.26% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.26% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.27% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.28% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-2.28% , China 25 iS, FXI
-2.30% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-2.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.31% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.31% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.32% , Global 100, IOO
-2.33% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.33% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-2.34% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-2.35% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-2.37% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.37% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-2.38% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.39% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.40% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.41% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.44% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.44% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.48% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.49% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.50% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.51% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-2.51% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.55% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-2.55% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-2.58% , Austria Index, EWO
-2.59% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.60% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-2.61% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.62% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-2.68% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.69% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-2.73% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.73% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.74% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.74% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.74% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-2.78% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-2.79% , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.79% , Belgium Index, EWK
-2.88% , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.96% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.99% , Water Resources, PHO
-3.05% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.10% , Italy Index, EWI
-3.11% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-3.11% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-3.17% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.18% , European VIPERs, VGK
-3.23% , Germany Index, EWG
-3.28% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-3.36% , France Index, EWQ
-3.36% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.39% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.45% , India PS, PIN
-3.51% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.64% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.67% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.87% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-4.06% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-4.14% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.19% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-4.35% , Spain Index, EWP
-4.54% , South Africa Index, EZA
-4.57% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.77% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1812.52, 50-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1701.12, 200-day SMA
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009