Crude Oil turned systematically bearish.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The following absolute prices crossed below 50-day SMAs on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish):

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
Small Cap Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)
Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV)
Technology stock sector ETF (XLK)

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/27/14, and absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,781.56), down 0.49%, absolute price tried to recover several times during the day but the bulls threw in the towel in the final hour. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of previous 2 months. The S&P 500 absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

NYSE total volume fell 13% to a level 15% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to -35, its lowest level in 6 weeks. Previously, the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14 was far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to a new high for the S&P 500 large-capitalization stock price index as of 1/15/14.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 remain weak relative to the price index itself. Both have been unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs, and both have turned notably weak relative to the S&P 500 since year end 12/31/13.

Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 1/24/14, suggesting a possible medium-term downside correction.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 1/24/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/24/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/27/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/24/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that underperformance may resume.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.94% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
6.06% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
3.21% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
3.07% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
4.24% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.51% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.23% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
5.60% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
2.64% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.70% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
1.78% , UTX , UNITED TECH
1.06% , MRK , MERCK & CO
0.52% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.78% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
2.06% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
0.74% , A , AGILENT TECH
2.25% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.30% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.00% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.76% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.76% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
0.67% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.20% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
0.61% , TJX , TJX
1.26% , MAS , MASCO
0.58% , SWY , SAFEWAY
0.93% , ACE , ACE
0.28% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
1.05% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.85% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
0.25% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.87% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.95% , AEE , AMEREN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.22% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-5.77% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-2.11% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.94% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.83% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.93% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.81% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-0.51% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.35% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.61% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.04% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-1.52% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.94% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.64% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-0.67% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.65% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.48% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.09% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.68% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-0.64% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.72% , KBH , KB HOME
-1.64% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-1.95% , FDX , FEDEX
-4.20% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.41% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-1.60% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-1.24% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-2.19% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-2.43% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-2.36% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-0.51% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.61% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.63% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.79% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.87% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.46% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.44% , Australia Index, EWA
0.40% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.29% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.24% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.21% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.12% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.10% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.10% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.06% , France Index, EWQ
0.05% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% , Networking, IGN
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.03% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.05% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.11% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.11% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.18% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.19% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.19% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.20% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.21% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.22% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.23% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.28% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.29% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.29% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.30% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.30% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.33% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.33% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.35% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.35% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.36% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.36% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.38% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.39% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.39% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.41% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.41% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.42% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.43% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.44% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.46% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.46% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.47% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.48% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.48% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.48% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.49% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.50% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.51% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.51% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.51% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.52% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.54% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.54% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.55% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.56% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.56% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.56% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.56% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.58% , Global 100, IOO
-0.59% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.60% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.61% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.61% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.61% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.61% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.61% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.62% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.63% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.64% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.64% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.64% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.64% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.64% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.66% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.67% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.68% , Dividend International, PID
-0.68% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.69% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.70% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.70% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.70% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.71% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.73% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.74% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.76% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.77% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.77% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.77% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.79% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.80% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.81% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.81% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.82% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.88% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.92% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.93% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.94% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.94% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.94% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.94% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.95% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.97% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.98% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.01% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.02% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.04% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.09% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.09% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.12% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.12% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.13% , India PS, PIN
-1.23% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.26% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.26% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.28% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.35% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.41% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.46% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.46% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.46% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.52% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.65% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.66% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.68% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.71% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.83% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.11% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.13% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-4.20% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1812.80, 50-day SMA

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1702.06, 200-day SMA
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009