Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/29/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Consumer Staples stock sector ETF (XLP) absolute price whipsawed back down below its 200-day SMA on 1/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose to a new high on 1/29/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Materials stock sector ETF (XLB) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 1/29/14, when it crossed above its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,774.20), down 1.02%, absolute price gapped down at the open and worked modestly lower in the first 7 minutes. SPX recovered most of its early loss by 11:30 am ET. SPX fell steeply after the FOMC statement at 2:00 pm ET and broke down below its intraday lows of the previous 6 weeks. The S&P 500 closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of the previous 11 weeks. The S&P 500 absolute price has remained systematically neutral below its 50-day SMA since 1/24/14.
NYSE total volume rose 15% to a level 12% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to -49, its lowest level in 6 weeks. Previously, the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14 was far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to a new high for the S&P 500 large-capitalization stock price index as of 1/15/14.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 have remained weak relative to the price index itself. Both have been unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs, and both have turned notably weak relative to the S&P 500 since year end 12/31/13.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 1/24/14, suggesting a possible medium-term downside correction.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/29/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/24/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that underperformance may resume.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.41% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
3.88% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
3.65% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
2.27% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.94% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.18% , AA , ALCOA
1.26% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
2.39% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
1.92% , ALTR , ALTERA
1.31% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.28% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.69% , IP , INTL PAPER
0.47% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.49% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.85% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
0.82% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.00% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.39% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.91% , DD , DU PONT
1.09% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
2.14% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.85% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
1.30% , PX , PRAXAIR
1.18% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.08% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
0.52% , HUM , HUMANA
0.41% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.38% , ECL , ECOLAB
1.66% , BLL , BALL
0.29% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
1.27% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
0.70% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.90% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.21% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-5.33% , BA , BOEING
-0.97% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.75% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-5.48% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-8.71% , YHOO , YAHOO
-5.69% , AVP , AVON
-3.24% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.19% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.88% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.55% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-1.60% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-4.17% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-2.88% , EMC , EMC
-2.50% , KO , COCA COLA
-3.09% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-3.06% , C , CITIGROUP
-3.20% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.88% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-2.56% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.48% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-2.48% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
-1.03% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.20% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.83% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-1.16% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-1.03% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-2.55% , PEP , PEPSICO
-1.35% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.71% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-2.01% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-2.12% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
-2.03% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.26% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.90% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.82% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.47% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.41% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.39% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.38% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.30% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.20% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.12% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.10% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.05% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.08% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.09% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.14% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.15% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.15% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.19% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.20% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.21% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.21% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.23% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.26% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.30% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.31% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.34% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.38% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.44% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.46% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.51% , Networking, IGN
-0.54% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.54% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.55% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.56% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.56% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.57% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.59% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.62% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.64% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.69% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.77% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.78% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.86% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.87% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.87% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.90% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.91% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.91% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.91% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.92% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.92% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.93% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.94% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.96% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.96% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.96% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.97% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.97% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.02% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.03% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.03% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.03% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.03% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.04% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.04% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.04% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.05% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.06% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.06% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.07% , Global 100, IOO
-1.07% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.07% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.08% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.09% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.10% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.10% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.11% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.11% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.11% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.12% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.12% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.13% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.14% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.15% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.15% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.16% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.17% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.18% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.18% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.19% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.19% , Dividend International, PID
-1.19% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.22% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.23% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.24% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.26% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.28% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.28% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.33% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.34% , France Index, EWQ
-1.35% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.35% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.37% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.38% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.39% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.40% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.41% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.43% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.43% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.44% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.49% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.51% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.52% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.53% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.54% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.54% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.60% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.61% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.75% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.75% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.77% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.79% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.80% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.82% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.88% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.95% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.99% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-2.10% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.20% , India PS, PIN
-2.30% , Austria Index, EWO
-2.32% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.43% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.56% , Singapore Index, EWS
-3.20% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-3.24% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.79% , South Africa Index, EZA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1812.68, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1704.19, 200-day SMA
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
