U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) and iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratios both fell below their lows of the previous 6 years on 1/30/14, thereby reconfirming preexisting long-term downtrends.
Consumer Staples stock sector ETF (XLP) Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 1/30/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend.
Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose to a new high on 1/30/14 and remains systematically bullish.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/30/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Materials stock sector ETF (XLB) Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 1/30/14, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,794.19), up 1.13%, absolute price gapped higher at the open, dipped briefly to close that gap, then worked higher to a peak at 12:56 pm ET. SPX sagged moderately in the later afternoon but still held onto most of the earlier gain. The S&P 500 closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of the previous 4 trading days.
The S&P 500 absolute price has remained systematically neutral below its 50-day SMA since 1/24/14 and, on Wednesday 1/29/14, SPX closed below the closing prices of the previous 11 weeks.
NYSE total volume fell 11% to a level matching its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 53, up from -49, its lowest level in 6 weeks, the previous day. Previously, the year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14 was far below peaks above 800 in 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to a new high for the S&P 500 large-capitalization stock price index as of 1/15/14.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 have remained weak relative to the price index itself. Both have been unable to rise above their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs, and both have turned notably weak relative to the S&P 500 since year-end 12/31/13.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. Both Averages fell below their 50-day SMAs on 1/24/14, suggesting a possible medium-term downside correction.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/30/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/30/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 20 weeks on 1/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/27/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/7/14 by crossing above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price crossed below its 50-day SMA on 1/24/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/30/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.07, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/24/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/21/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that underperformance may resume.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
17.39% , HAR , Harman International
13.90% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
18.96% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
2.08% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
7.47% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
7.52% , QLGC , QLOGIC
14.10% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
5.17% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.73% , IGV , Software, IGV
5.02% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
4.90% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
2.03% , UIS , UNISYS
1.85% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
3.74% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
5.16% , BLL , BALL
3.38% , PKI , PERKINELMER
3.40% , GPS , GAP
3.75% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
3.39% , EFX , EQUIFAX
3.23% , A , AGILENT TECH
0.86% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
2.90% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
2.57% , GOOG , Google
6.13% , AN , AUTONATION
1.68% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.88% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
3.77% , ADSK , AUTODESK
2.84% , EXC , EXELON CORP
3.78% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
3.94% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
2.74% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
4.15% , XRX , XEROX
0.97% , XLNX , XILINX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.48% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-8.27% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-6.64% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-7.33% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-2.68% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-2.84% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-1.33% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-1.08% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-1.28% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.96% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-4.04% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.79% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.33% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-1.22% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-3.55% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.07% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.69% , MMM , 3M
-0.28% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.18% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
-0.12% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-0.20% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-0.19% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.19% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-0.05% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.22% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.46% , DOV , DOVER
-3.10% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.06% , NE , NOBLE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.62% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.44% , India PS, PIN
2.32% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.85% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.82% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.73% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.73% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.71% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.68% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.68% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.68% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.66% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.63% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.63% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.62% , Networking, IGN
1.61% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.59% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.54% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.54% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.54% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.53% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.53% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.53% , Australia Index, EWA
1.52% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.52% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.49% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.48% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.48% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.43% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.40% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.40% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.40% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.40% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.38% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.38% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.35% , Water Resources, PHO
1.34% , Spain Index, EWP
1.34% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.32% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.31% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.31% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.29% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.28% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.27% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.26% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.25% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.23% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.23% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.22% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.21% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.20% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.20% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.19% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.17% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.14% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.13% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.12% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.11% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.10% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.09% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.06% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.05% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.03% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.03% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.01% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.00% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.98% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.98% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.93% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.90% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.88% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.88% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.82% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.80% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.78% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.76% , Canada Index, EWC
0.76% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.74% , Dividend International, PID
0.72% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.72% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.70% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.68% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.68% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.67% , Russia MV, RSX
0.66% , Global 100, IOO
0.64% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.63% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.62% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.55% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.53% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.52% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.51% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.50% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.49% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.48% , France Index, EWQ
0.48% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.48% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.47% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.46% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.46% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.46% , Germany Index, EWG
0.45% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.44% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.42% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.39% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.38% , Italy Index, EWI
0.37% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.32% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.32% , Energy Global, IXC
0.28% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.25% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.24% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.22% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.22% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.20% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.19% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.18% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.17% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.17% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.15% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.13% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.12% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.11% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.05% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.02% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.06% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.06% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.07% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.10% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.19% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.28% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.29% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.35% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.40% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.22% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-2.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.79% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1812.60, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1705.29, 200-day SMA
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
