Some Risk Aversion in Market Place Heading Into Weekend

NOTE: I am out of the office today. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report.—Jim

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends this week’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January’s high, December’s low crossing at 3415.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3548.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews 2013’s rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3548.75. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 3635.25. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 3454.25. Second support is December’s low crossing at 3415.25.

The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it resumes its decline off December’s high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December’s high, December’s low crossing at 1755.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1815.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1815.28. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 1846.50. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 1764.00. Second support is December’s low crossing at 1755.00.

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend the rally off December’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December’s low, October’s high crossing at 134-08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 133-29. Second resistance is October’s high crossing at 134-08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132-15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-06.

ENERGY MARKETS: March Nymex crude oil was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January’s low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 99.58. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the decline off December’s high crossing at 98.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the decline off December’s high crossing at 99.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.02.

CURRENCIES: The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s rally, January’s high crossing at 81.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.94 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January’s high crossing at 81.52. Second resistance is November’s high crossing at 81.73. First support is last week’s low crossing at 80.22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.82.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week’s decline, the 38% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at 134.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.17 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 137.40. First support is January’s low crossing at 135.06. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at 134.68.

GRAINS: March corn was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday’s rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January’s low, December’s high crossing at 4.40 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below minor support crossing at 4.21 would renew the decline off January’s high. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.36. Second resistance is December’s high crossing at 4.40 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.21. Second support is January’s low crossing at 4.06 1/4.

March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday’s decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October’s high, weekly support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 6.12 3/4. First support is Wednesday’s low crossing at 5.50 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.00.

March soybeans were fractionally higher overnight. However, the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If March extends the decline off January’s high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 12.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.85 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.85 1/2. Second resistance is January’s high crossing at 13.30 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 12.59 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 12.47.