NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to a 22-month high on 2/18/14 and has remained systematically bullish since 11/26/13.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/18/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 2/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
Health Care stock sector ETF (XLV) Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) rose to a new high on 2/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Consumer Staples stock sector ETF (XLP) Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 2/18/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,840.76, up 0.12%) absolute price opened modestly higher and rose above the intraday highs of the previous 17 trading days during the first 2 hours. The market spent the balance of the day consolidating early gains. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing prices of the previous 17 trading days, suggesting a minor rally attempt. SPX has advanced 7 of the past 8 trading days. The S&P 500 absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/10/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
NYSE total volume rose 9% to a level 2% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 352 on 2/18/14. Although this is an improvement from the negative numbers recorded from 1/24/14 through 2/5/14, it is significantly below the 2014 year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14 and far below peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 continue to lag relative to that price index, which now has recovered 93% of its loss from its high close of 1,848.38 on 1/15/14 to its low close of 1,741.89 on 2/3/14. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 1/15/14, and both fell to their lowest level in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to a 22-month high on 2/18/14 and has remained systematically bullish since 11/26/13. Absolute price of QQQ whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 2/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/30/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/18/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has remained systematically neutral most of the time since the ratio peaked on 10/3/13. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/31/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/5/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/14/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but the trend has turned uncertain since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
27.52% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
1.32% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.46% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.77% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
2.37% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
2.09% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.20% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
2.68% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
5.35% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.15% , NBR , NABORS
0.89% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
2.31% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.00% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
4.68% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
1.75% , BIG , BIG LOTS
0.32% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
0.75% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.70% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
1.39% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.30% , DRI , DARDEN REST
1.34% , SWY , SAFEWAY
0.26% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.97% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.94% , LLY , ELI LILLY
3.20% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
3.50% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
2.64% , DLX , DELUXE
0.66% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.25% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
2.25% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
2.69% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.16% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.21% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.47% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-0.46% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-3.75% , KO , COCA COLA
-2.45% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-1.66% , AN , AUTONATION
-4.47% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-3.00% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-2.11% , NCR , NCR
-1.55% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
-1.22% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-1.47% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.80% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-1.21% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.02% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-1.19% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-0.31% , ASH , ASHLAND
-1.14% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-0.22% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.34% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-0.20% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-0.79% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-0.17% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.86% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.12% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.30% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.10% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.32% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.16% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-1.30% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.38% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-0.10% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
-0.17% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.09% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.93% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.99% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.60% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.32% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.31% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
2.20% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.09% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.49% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.46% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.44% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.29% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.21% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.17% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.16% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.08% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.04% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.04% , Networking, IGN
0.97% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.96% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.93% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.93% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.93% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.92% , Austria Index, EWO
0.91% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.89% , Dividend International, PID
0.88% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.86% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.86% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.86% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.80% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.78% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.75% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.68% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.66% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.66% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.63% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.61% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.61% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.59% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.57% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.56% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.55% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.55% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.54% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.54% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.54% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.51% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.51% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.49% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.49% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.48% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.45% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.44% , Germany Index, EWG
0.44% , Australia Index, EWA
0.41% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.40% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.39% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.39% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.39% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.39% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.38% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.37% , Global 100, IOO
0.37% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.36% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.35% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.34% , Canada Index, EWC
0.34% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.33% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.31% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.31% , Energy Global, IXC
0.30% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.30% , Italy Index, EWI
0.29% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.29% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.27% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.27% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.26% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.26% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.25% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.25% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.24% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.23% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.22% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.21% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.19% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.18% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.17% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.16% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.16% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.16% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.14% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.13% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.12% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.12% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.11% , France Index, EWQ
0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.08% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.08% , Water Resources, PHO
0.07% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.07% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.06% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.06% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.01% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.01% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.08% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.11% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.12% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.16% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.17% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.21% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.22% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.30% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.31% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.35% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.50% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.57% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.59% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.65% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.76% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.84% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.84% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.87% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.93% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.93% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.99% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.05% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.22% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.29% , India PS, PIN
-1.46% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.58% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.86% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.73% , Brazil Index, EWZ
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1812.22, 50-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1718.50, 200-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
