The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Absolute prices of the following stock sector ETFs whipsawed back up above their 50-day SMAs on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral):
Industrial SPDR, XLI
Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,839.78, up 0.60%) absolute price fell below the intraday lows of the previous 3 trading days by 10:00 am before reversing and rising most of the day. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above the closing price of the previous trading day.
NYSE total volume fell 6% to a level 1% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 208 from 352 on 2/18/14. Although this still is an improvement from the negative numbers recorded from 1/24/14 through 2/5/14, it is significantly below the 2014 year-to-date high of 439 set on Wednesday 1/15/14 and far below peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 have continued to lag relative to that price index. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 1/15/14, both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14, and both recovered proportionally less of their losses in the recent stock price bounce.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to a 22-month high on 2/18/14 and has remained systematically bullish since 11/26/13. Absolute price of QQQ whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 2/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/30/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) firmed up since making a low on 12/19/13 and is now systematically bullish. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/31/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/5/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/14/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but the trend has turned uncertain since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.85% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
4.46% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
1.74% , IGN , Networking, IGN
0.93% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
5.05% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
0.74% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.21% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.04% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
3.15% , DRI , DARDEN REST
2.31% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
2.51% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
1.76% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
3.77% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.38% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.83% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
3.42% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
0.99% , PLL , PALL
2.86% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
3.70% , WMB , WILLIAMS
2.52% , WAT , WATERS
1.05% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
1.10% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.15% , SVU , SUPERVALU
2.05% , SWY , SAFEWAY
2.12% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
0.91% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
1.58% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
3.24% , ALL , ALLSTATE
2.77% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
0.95% , JWN , NORDSTROM
0.48% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
1.86% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.87% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.31% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-1.78% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-1.80% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.86% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-2.23% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-0.35% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-0.62% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-0.10% , ECL , ECOLAB
-0.25% , NI , NISOURCE
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.66% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.21% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.80% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.79% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.74% , Networking, IGN
1.65% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.54% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.49% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.34% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.34% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.34% , Water Resources, PHO
1.33% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.17% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.17% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.11% , Russia MV, RSX
1.11% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.09% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.08% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.05% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.05% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.05% , Australia Index, EWA
1.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.04% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.03% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.01% , India PS, PIN
1.00% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.95% , France Index, EWQ
0.94% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.93% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.93% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.91% , Italy Index, EWI
0.91% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.90% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.90% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.87% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.87% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.86% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.86% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.84% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.84% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.82% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.81% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.79% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.79% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.79% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.78% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.78% , Energy Global, IXC
0.78% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.77% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.77% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.76% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.74% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.72% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.72% , Spain Index, EWP
0.71% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.71% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.69% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.69% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.68% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.68% , Austria Index, EWO
0.67% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.67% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.67% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.66% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.66% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.65% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.63% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.63% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.62% , Global 100, IOO
0.61% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.61% , Dividend International, PID
0.60% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.60% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.60% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.59% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.59% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.59% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.58% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.57% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.56% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.55% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.55% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.54% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.54% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.53% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.52% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.49% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.49% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.49% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.48% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.47% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.46% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.46% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.45% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.45% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.45% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.43% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.41% , Canada Index, EWC
0.37% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.36% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.35% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.33% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.33% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.31% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.31% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.31% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.29% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.28% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.27% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.20% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.19% , Germany Index, EWG
0.19% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.14% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.11% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.07% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.00% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.06% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.07% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.11% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.12% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.13% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.14% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.17% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.18% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.22% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.24% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.24% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.30% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.39% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.43% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.50% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.59% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.61% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.83% , China 25 iS, FXI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1850.84, low of 1/15/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1813.79, 50-day SMA
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1720.68, 200-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
