Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 2/25/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 2/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 2/25/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,845.12, down 0.13 %) absolute price opened slightly higher but closed slightly lower in a relatively dull, narrow-range “Inside Day”, where the range of the day was contained within the previous day’s range. It was also a “Spinning Top” Candlestick; following a 12-day bounce, a “Spinning Top” implies indecision and potential trend change. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing price of the previous trading day.
NYSE total volume fell 1% to a level 6% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) fell to 194 from 510 on 2/24/14. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 have continued to lag relative to that price index. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 1/15/14, both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14, and both recovered proportionally less of their losses in the recent stock price bounce.
The minor trend of the stock market has been up since 2/3/14, but momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to a 22-month high on 2/18/14 and has remained systematically bullish since 11/26/13. Absolute price of QQQ whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 2/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 2/25/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 2/21/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price also rose to a new high on 2/24/14 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/31/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/5/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/14/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but the trend has turned uncertain since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.57% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
12.02% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
2.37% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.82% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
1.57% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
4.82% , KBH , KB HOME
2.03% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
0.56% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
1.29% , BMS , BEMIS
1.29% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
1.45% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.56% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.41% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
3.99% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.88% , LOW , LOWES
2.01% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
0.99% , TJX , TJX
0.95% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
2.14% , ECL , ECOLAB
2.38% , SEE , SEALED AIR
0.31% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.94% , MBI , MBIA
0.98% , GCI , GANNETT
0.67% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.59% , DOV , DOVER
0.22% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.47% , CR , CRANE
0.47% , HSP , HOSPIRA
0.94% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.37% , USB , US BANCORP
2.00% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
3.27% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.18% , ITT , ITT INDS
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.10% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-8.79% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-7.02% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-4.03% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.91% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.66% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-1.42% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.53% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-2.97% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.77% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-1.30% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.24% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-4.20% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-1.88% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.17% , BA , BOEING
-2.84% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-1.80% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-1.48% , FLR , FLUOR
-4.78% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-0.62% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.90% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.73% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-2.12% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-1.14% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.46% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-0.31% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.87% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-0.78% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.72% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-2.00% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
-1.20% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.63% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-1.28% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.40% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.89% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.70% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.68% , Spain Index, EWP
0.58% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.57% , Austria Index, EWO
0.43% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.41% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.39% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.39% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.38% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.37% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.36% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.35% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.34% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.33% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.31% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.27% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.25% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.24% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.22% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.20% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.17% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.15% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.12% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.10% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.09% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.06% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.06% , Italy Index, EWI
0.06% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.05% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.05% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.05% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.04% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.02% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.00% , France Index, EWQ
0.00% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.02% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.02% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.04% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.04% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.04% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.05% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.05% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.07% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.08% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.08% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.08% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.08% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.10% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.10% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.11% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.11% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.11% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.11% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.11% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.11% , Networking, IGN
-0.12% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.12% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.12% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.14% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.15% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.16% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.18% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.18% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.18% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.21% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.21% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.22% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.23% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.23% , Global 100, IOO
-0.24% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.24% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.24% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.25% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.25% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.27% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.28% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.29% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.30% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.30% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.32% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.33% , Dividend International, PID
-0.33% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.34% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.34% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.36% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.40% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.46% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.47% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.47% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.47% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.50% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.53% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.54% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.55% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.60% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.63% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.68% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.69% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.72% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.72% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.76% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.76% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.80% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.86% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.87% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.90% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.94% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.94% , India PS, PIN
-1.00% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.01% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.09% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.13% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.14% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.23% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.24% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.24% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.24% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.26% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.39% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.42% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.73% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.88% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.97% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-4.03% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1858.71, high of 2/24/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1816.51, 50-day SMA
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1723.90, 200-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
