* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Traders and investors are awaiting Thursday morning’s speech to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The market place wants to see if Yellen tips her hand regarding any future monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve, including the pace of the Fed’s “tapering” of its monthly bond-buying program. Yellen’s speech was originally scheduled for a couple weeks ago, but was postponed due to inclement weather.

The Chinese currency, the yuan, fell to a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar Thursday, as it appears the Chinese government is manipulating its yuan for world trade advantages and to punish currency speculators trading the yuan.

The crisis in Ukraine is still a worry to the market place. The country is on the verge of financial collapse and needs funding soon from outside sources. Also, gunmen took over the government offices in Crimea Thursday and raised a Russian flag. This comes as the Russian government has moved troops and armor closer to Ukraine. If this situation escalates it would put even more risk aversion into the world market place, which would likely be bullish for gold and U.S. Treasuries and bearish for equities.

In the Euro zone, economic sentiment data was upbeat Thursday and showed the bloc’s economic confidence at a 2.5-year high.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine uncertainty and recent Thailand unrest are keeping some risk aversion in the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading today, on mild profit taking. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,846.90 and then at Monday’s all-time high of 1,856.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,830.00 and then at 1,817.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,688.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,701.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 3,655.00 and then at 3,638.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,178 and then at 16,200. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,100 and then at 16,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls are gaining upside technical momentum this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 22/32 and then at the February high of 135 3/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 134 2/32 and then at 133 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today and hit a three-week high overnight. Bulls are gaining upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.13.0 and then at the February high of 126.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.01.5 and then at Wednesday’s low of 125.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hit a two-week high overnight, on short covering. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.600 and then at 80.800. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.390 and then at Wednesday’s low of 80.125. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical momentum. A steep seven-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of $102.90 and then at this week’s high of $103.45. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of $101.58. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight, with soybeans higher and corn and wheat slightly lower. Grain market bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Traders will closely examine Thursday morning’s USDA weekly export sales report, as well as watch the daily export sales report to see if there has been any China cancellations of previous U.S. soybean purchases. The overall technical posture of the raw commodity sector is turning more bullish by the day, which is supporting fresh speculative buying interest in the commodity sector, including the grain futures. Focus will soon turn from South American crop harvest and yields, to the U.S. planting season and any potential planting delays.