* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the European Union remains worried about deflationary price pressures as Spain has slipped into deflation, reports said. Some German and French inflation figures released Friday also showed a slowing pace of price increases. This news favors the camp of European Union monetary policy doves who want to see soon fresh monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank.

The market place has taken note of the Chinese premiere Li Keqiang’s comments to the official China newspaper Friday. Li said China’s economic growth needs to be kept at a “reasonable pace.” Some are taking that to mean China could soon introduce new monetary policy stimulus measures to boost its economy.

U.S. economic data due out Friday includes personal income and outlays, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The market place is already looking ahead to next Friday’s U.S. jobs report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has for the moment de-escalated but is still an unsettling market factor.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has turned choppy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,850.00 and then at 1,860.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,834.00 and then at 1,825.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today but hovering not far above a six-week low. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 3,585.00 and then at 3,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,555.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,536.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,250 and then at 16,300. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,175 and then at Thursday’s low of 16,120. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS & NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on profit taking after hitting a contract high on Thursday. Bulls still have the overall level near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 8/32 and then at Thursday’s contract high of 134 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 24/32 and then at Thursday’s low of 133 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 123.29.5 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.20.0 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.400 and then at last week’s high of 80.505. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.225 and then at 80.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit another three-week high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $102.00 and then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $101.18 and then at $100.46. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight on some profit taking and more chart consolidation. Trading could be quieter today as next Monday’s USDA planting intentions report is on deck. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The corn market is seeing underlying support from worries about U.S. planting delays. Soybeans are boosted by strong worldwide demand, and the wheat market sees buying interest due to the poor condition of the U.S. hard red winter crop.