* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Trading was quieter overnight with many markets pausing as focus is turning to next week’s monthly monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. It’s widely believed the ECB will announce further monetary policy stimulus measures at that meeting. Recent weak European Union economic data and fears of deflation setting in for the EU are solid reasons for the ECB to make a move next week.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday could significantly move the markets. The data includes the weekly jobless claims report, gross domestic product report, pending home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

A feature in the market place recently has been falling U.S. Treasury bond yields (rising prices). Bond yields have fallen to the lowest levels in almost a year. This “flight-to-quality” buying of T-bonds and T-notes suggests growing trader and investor unease—either from concerns about world economic growth or geopolitical tensions, or both.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine crisis has not escalated and the rest of the world is quieter regarding geopolitics. However, the falling U.S. Treasury yields may be a harbinger of trouble ahead.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading and hovering near this week’s record high. Bulls are in solid overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 1,914.00 and then at 1,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,900.00 and then at 1,889.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and are hovering near a three-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 3,729.50 and then at the April high of 3,740.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,709.75 and then at 3,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hovering not far below the record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the record high of 16,690 and then at 16,700. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 16,605 and then at 16,545. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit another contract high early today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 138 29/32 and then at 139 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138 16/32 and then at 138 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a fresh contract high early today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.19.5 and then at 126.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.12.5 and then at 126.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading, on profit taking after hitting a seven-week high Wednesday. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 80.630 and then at the April high of 80.770. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 80.380 and then at this week’s low of 80.225. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $103.50 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $103.57 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. Soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Wheat and corn bears have the near-term technical momentum. Focus in the grains will remain in weather patterns in the U.S. midsection. Presently, the weather in the central U.S. is a mixed bag and normal for this time of year. However, don’t be surprised in the next few weeks if the first summertime weather scare pops up in the grain futures market.