“Who cares?” I think to myself as I am reading a lengthy article about the latest news in Ukraine this morning. Really, does the market care about this “crisis” that not too long ago sent the market reeling? An acronym that applies here is ADD, or ADHD, as it is now known.
- It’s Fed decision day again with Janet Yellen set to announce another $10 billion cut from bond purchases, keeping the FOMC on pace to wind down QE Unlimited later this year.
The breathless media is giving space to the upcoming announcement from Ms. Yellen this afternoon. “Who cares?” I think to myself. Half the market will see whatever she says as positive and the other half will see it as negative, so, again, who cares? More than likely, she will announce another $10 billion slice off QE (positive now after it was negative way back when) and more than likely she will avoid altering the perception that interest rates will begin rising in mid-2015 (positive now after it was negative way back when).
Yellen, Ukraine, Iraq, Iran, China, Europe, US economic data, and summer time all play a part in the market, once again, trading in a fairly tight range. The difference between today and a month ago is the range – it is now is higher.
- The 25 to 50 points “in between” are probably going to be maddening to trade within because we’re going to hear everything under the sun while stocks bounce around in that no-man’s land.
The “no-man’s land” is somewhere in low 1920s on the low end of the S&P 500 and at the top end, somewhere in the 1950s. I would ask “Who cares?” here, but the fact is, as a trader and investor, I care about the range. I would like to see the market hang out here for a while, just to get itself stabilized, setup for the fall. I am in no hurry to see it break out to the topside and I sure as shoot don’t want to see it fall through the floor.
Yup, it’s okay if we bounce around here for a while, as long as the Russell 2000 remains on track to quietly move back toward its former glory. The top end for the index is 1208 and today it is right around 1173. Today, however, it is tracking the S&P and the Dow into the red, as per the wait for Ms. Yellen to speak later today.
Okay, so we get through the summer, taking bites here and there where we can, and then we get aggressive in the fall, assuming the market goes as it has for the last five autumns. Sound like a plan? Maybe, but I would add that I will also be watching closely for signs the market might break out earlier than September. One sign would be the Russell 2000 index quietly getting closer to its recent high-water market of 1208. Another would be …
- FedEx Corp reported a better-than-expected 3.5 percent rise in quarterly revenue as the world’s No. 2 package delivery company benefited from higher volumes in its ground business.
Higher volumes in shipping small packages on the ground sounds like Amazon and other online retailers selling lots of stuff to me. If true, it means little to the Russell 2000 index, but, on the other hand, it means plenty for that pesky US economic data thing I mentioned earlier. In fact, the money consumers spend this summer is another sign to watch for, a sign that might point to a mid-to-late summer breakout in the market.
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
