* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It was another relatively quiet trading affair overseas overnight. A two-day European Union summit begins Thursday. On the agenda is the potential for additional sanctions the EU could slap on Russia for its annexation of part of Ukraine.

Reports overnight said China authorities have uncovered $15 billion illegal gold financing scheme that dates back at least two years. This could be putting some downside price pressure on the yellow metal Thursday. Chinese officials recently broke up a big, illegal copper financing operation in China, which sunk the copper market for a short time.

The civil war in Iraq is still an issue for the market place but it has at least temporarily moved off the front burner. Don’t be surprised in the coming days to see this matter move back into the spotlight of the market place and once again significantly impact some market prices.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and personal income and outlays.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Civil war in Iraq still has the world market place somewhat concerned but there have been no major new developments this week.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s record high of 1,960.00 and then at 1,970.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,937.25 and then at 1,929.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far below this week’s 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 3,829.00 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,779.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 16,800 and then at 16,850. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,750 and then at Wednesday’s low of 16,695. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 136 30/32 and then at 137 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136 14/32 and then at 136 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.28.0 and then at 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.23.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 124.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 80.410 and then at this week’s high of 80.505. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.20 and then at Wednesday’s low of 80.140. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a contract high on Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $107.00 and then at the contract high of $107.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then at this week’s low of $105.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading on short covering. Traders will examine Thursday morning’s weekly USDA grain export sales report. Grain market bears are still in overall technical control. Fundamentally, there is still good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Focus will remain on Corn Belt weather forecasts, but also on upcoming USDA acreage and supply and demand data issued next Monday. Importantly, don’t be lulled just yet into thinking the U.S. corn and soybean crops are already bin-busters. We are just now entering the time period when dry and hot weather starts to enter the Corn Belt.