* Latest Market Developments *

There are still geopolitical rumblings in the market place early this week. The European Union and U.S. are slapping new sanctions on Russia. Meantime, the Israel-Hamas conflict appears not to be de-escalating. These matters helped to pressure world stock markets overnight. The German 10-year bund yield fell to a record low Tuesday, on the safe-haven moves by investors and traders. Meantime, U.S. Treasury bond prices are hovering near their recent contract high and the U.S. dollar index is hovering near a 5.5-month high that was scored last Friday. Gold has also seen a safe-haven bid recently, on the geopolitical tensions.

The market place is also focused on the big slate of U.S. economic data on tap this week. The headliners include the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the key U.S. employment report on Friday. The U.S. second-quarter GDP report is also out on Wednesday.  It’s likely the aforementioned reports will have a significant price impact on many markets, in the immediate aftermath of their release times.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and the consumer confidence index. Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Geopolitics are still at play in the market place, but for now traders and investors are a bit numb to those matters.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,980.00 and then at the record high of 1,985.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,960.75 and then at 1,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 3,966.00 and then at 3,975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,940.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,930.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded a bit but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 17,000 and then at 17,055. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,900 and then at 16,860. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hovering near the recent contract high, on safe-haven demand. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 138 27/32 and then at 139 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138 9/32 and then at 138 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.09.5 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.01.0 and then at last week’s low of 124.30.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading and hovering near the 5.5-month high scored last Friday. Bulls still have some upside momentum on their side. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 81.200 and then at 81.300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.085 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $101.83 and then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $100.90 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback from gains posted Monday. The grain markets are showing early signs of bottoming out. However, the grains are also not showing any signs of wanting to sustain any uptrends, either. Bears continue have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grain markets. There is generally dry weather in the Corn Belt forecast that does merit close attention, but is not yet threatening to the corn and soybean crops.