The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/23/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/23/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.
Consumer Discretionary stock sector ETF (XLY) Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 9/23/14, thereby signaling significant trend weakness.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,982.77, down 0.58%) absolute price opened lower, attempted to recover a few times, only to fall straight down in the final 15 minutes and finish at the lowest level of the day. SPX closed below the (true) open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing prices of the previous 5 weeks.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/10/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 9/22/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 9/22/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 9/17/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/23/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 22 months on 9/23/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in 14 months on 9/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 7 months on 9/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 8 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming its medium-term downtrend that started on 7/10/14. GLD price has been crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs this year, resulting in misleading signals, typical of a range-bound market. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 9/22/14, thereby confirming its downtrend that started on 8/12/14. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 9/23/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.64% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.84% , AGN , ALLERGAN
2.47% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
0.42% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
0.32% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.47% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
1.39% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.30% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
0.82% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
1.94% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
0.89% , KBH , KB HOME
0.69% , COH , COACH
0.47% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.45% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.18% , NI , NISOURCE
0.08% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.96% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.13% , MAS , MASCO
0.02% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.20% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
0.88% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
0.15% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
0.31% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.12% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
0.29% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
1.07% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.13% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
0.03% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.21% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.11% , ETN , EATON
0.75% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.05% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.04% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-9.49% , KMX , CarMax
-2.55% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.91% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-2.88% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.53% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.94% , DOV , DOVER
-1.03% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.17% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.70% , RSP , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.58% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-3.39% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-0.71% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.07% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-2.36% , GCI , GANNETT
-0.83% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.83% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-0.74% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.95% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-2.40% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-2.08% , AN , AUTONATION
-2.61% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-1.20% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-1.66% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-0.65% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-1.73% , OMC , OMNICOM
-0.75% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-0.72% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-0.83% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.86% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-1.85% , MDP , MEREDITH
-1.43% , CB , CHUBB
-1.43% , GLW , CORNING
-0.52% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.47% , Russia MV, RSX
0.73% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.64% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.62% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.62% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.57% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.45% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.44% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.38% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.31% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.21% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.21% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.16% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.15% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.11% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.09% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.08% , Australia Index, EWA
0.05% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.10% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.10% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.13% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.19% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.22% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.22% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.27% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.27% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.28% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.28% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.29% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.30% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.30% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.30% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.31% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.31% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.31% , Networking, IGN
-0.32% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.32% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.32% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.33% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.37% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.40% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.44% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.44% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.47% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.48% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.48% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.48% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.51% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.51% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.52% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.55% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.56% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.57% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.57% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.58% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.59% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.60% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.61% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.62% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.63% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.63% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.63% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.64% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.65% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.65% , Global 100, IOO
-0.65% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.65% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.66% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.66% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.68% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.68% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.68% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.68% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.69% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.69% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.70% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.70% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.70% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.70% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.70% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.71% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.72% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.72% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.73% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.74% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.74% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.77% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.77% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.78% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.80% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.80% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.82% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.82% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.82% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.83% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.83% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.84% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.84% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.85% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.86% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.86% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.86% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.86% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.86% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.87% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.88% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.88% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.89% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.89% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.90% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.90% , Dividend International, PID
-0.90% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.92% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.93% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.93% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.98% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.00% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.02% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.03% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.03% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.03% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.29% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.31% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.32% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.33% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.37% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.41% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.48% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.48% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.53% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.58% , India PS, PIN
-1.69% , France Index, EWQ
-1.79% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1978.48, low of 9/15/2014
1976.08, 50-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1895.00, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
