Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 21 months on 10/7/14 and remains systematically bearish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 9 months on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,935.10, down 1.51%) remains in a short-term downtrend below its 50-day SMA now at 1,973.62.
NYSE total volume rose 10% to a level 14% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at -67, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both Averages entered Minor Ripple downside corrections since that new high.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 9/30/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose above its highs of the previous 13 years 9/18/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/3/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 12 months on 9/23/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been in a corrective mode since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose back above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 119.43, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose back above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 105.23, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 21 months on 10/7/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 9 months on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 33.64, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months on 10/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. GDX/GLD has been systematically neutral most of the time since it bottomed on 12/6/13.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.68% , AGN , ALLERGAN
0.72% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
1.35% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.60% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.72% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
3.25% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
2.89% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.39% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.30% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
1.52% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.73% , KO , COCA COLA
0.13% , ETR , ENTERGY
0.17% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.22% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
0.12% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.16% , SO , SOUTHERN
0.38% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.20% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
0.23% , CHD , Church & Dwight
0.10% , NE , NOBLE
0.36% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.07% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
0.01% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.88% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-6.12% , BBY , BEST BUY
-2.13% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-4.82% , CMI , CUMMINS
-3.42% , DE , DEERE & CO
-2.96% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-3.34% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-1.27% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-2.33% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-3.86% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.60% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.94% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-3.26% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-2.54% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-1.90% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.08% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-2.00% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-1.61% , MBI , MBIA
-3.15% , FLR , FLUOR
-3.80% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-2.00% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-5.47% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-1.52% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-1.77% , ASH , ASHLAND
-1.94% , PCG , PG&E
-3.05% , NCR , NCR
-1.46% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-3.05% , STT , STATE STREET
-2.53% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-2.69% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-2.94% , KSS , KOHLS
-3.58% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-2.41% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.52% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.50% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.35% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.59% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.42% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.39% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.38% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.36% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.28% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.24% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.11% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.14% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.18% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.25% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.29% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.32% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.38% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.39% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.59% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.59% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.61% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.62% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.68% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.68% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.72% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.72% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.75% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.79% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.82% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.85% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.88% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.90% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.90% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.90% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.97% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.02% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.04% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.05% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.12% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.24% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.25% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.27% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.29% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.30% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.32% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.36% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.37% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.38% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.39% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.41% , Dividend International, PID
-1.42% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.43% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.44% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.44% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.45% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.45% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.46% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.46% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.49% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.49% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.49% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.49% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.50% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.50% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.51% , Global 100, IOO
-1.51% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.52% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.53% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.53% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.53% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.54% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.54% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.54% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.55% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.55% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.55% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.56% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.56% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.57% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.57% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.57% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.58% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.59% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.60% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.62% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.63% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.63% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.63% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.63% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.65% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.65% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.66% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.69% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.69% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.70% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.70% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.70% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.70% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.71% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.73% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.75% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.75% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.75% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.75% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.76% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.76% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.76% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.77% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.77% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.78% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.90% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.93% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.94% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.95% , Networking, IGN
-1.97% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.00% , Water Resources, PHO
-2.01% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.02% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.05% , Belgium Index, EWK
-2.08% , European VIPERs, VGK
-2.08% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.13% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.28% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.33% , India PS, PIN
-2.38% , Italy Index, EWI
-2.39% , France Index, EWQ
-2.40% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.43% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.43% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.49% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.59% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.60% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.66% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.84% , Spain Index, EWP
-2.96% , Sweden Index, EWD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1973.62, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1903.61, 200-day SMA
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
