Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,886.76, up 1.29%) opened higher on an upside gap and added to gains Friday morning before turning choppy in the afternoon. SPX finished above its closing prices of the previous 4 trading days. Clearly, that was an improvement, but still it might be premature to speculate that the bull market has revived. SPX remains below both its 50- and 200-day SMAs, now at 1,967.27 and 1,906.02.
NYSE total volume fell 12% to a level 35% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 92, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Currently, the U.S. stock market is in a short-term, minor Ripple upside correction within a medium-term Secondary Reaction to the downside.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) declined since making a peak on 10/9/14 and is now systematically neutral. The absolute price of QQQ has been trending down since 9/18/14 and is systematically neutral.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/10/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 months on 10/13/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 27 months on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX has been trending down since it peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.89% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
12.21% , QLGC , QLOGIC
8.88% , TXT , TEXTRON
5.89% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
6.65% , XLNX , XILINX
6.52% , KBH , KB HOME
1.83% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
4.49% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
1.05% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
3.03% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.04% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
6.15% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
6.99% , AA , ALCOA
4.10% , MHFI.K , McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., MHFI.K
2.67% , ALTR , ALTERA
3.04% , INTU , INTUIT
1.34% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
0.91% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
2.27% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
4.57% , FB.O , Facebook, Inc., FB
2.56% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.75% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
1.58% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
4.09% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
4.25% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
1.44% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.57% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.42% , MKC , MCCORMICK
3.06% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.72% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
1.23% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
2.54% , ETN , EATON
2.47% , RAI , Reynolds American
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.29% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-3.06% , CMA , COMERICA
-2.94% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-2.67% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-2.54% , GOOG , Google
-0.94% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.46% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.84% , MTB , M&T BANK
-1.55% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-2.04% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-4.54% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.32% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.90% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-1.79% , COH , COACH
-0.62% , TGT , TARGET
-0.79% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.82% , BBT , BB&T
-0.70% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
-1.38% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.53% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-0.34% , VFC , VF
-0.74% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-0.29% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-0.20% , WAG , WALGREEN
-0.03% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.19% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.99% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.09% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.52% , APA , APACHE
-1.01% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.16% , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.16% , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
2.71% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.64% , Sweden Index, EWD
2.60% , Italy Index, EWI
2.54% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.51% , Germany Index, EWG
2.44% , Spain Index, EWP
2.37% , France Index, EWQ
2.27% , Russia MV, RSX
2.27% , European VIPERs, VGK
2.20% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.12% , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.10% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.98% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.93% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.87% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.86% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.86% , Austria Index, EWO
1.83% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.82% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.80% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.76% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.63% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.62% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.61% , Networking, IGN
1.59% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.59% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.57% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.54% , Energy Global, IXC
1.53% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.48% , Global 100, IOO
1.47% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.44% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.40% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.38% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.38% , Australia Index, EWA
1.33% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.33% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.32% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.31% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.28% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.28% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.27% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.24% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.22% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.20% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.18% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.18% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.17% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.17% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.16% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.16% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.14% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.13% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.12% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.12% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.12% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.11% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.11% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.11% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.11% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.11% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.09% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.04% , Canada Index, EWC
1.04% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.03% , Dividend International, PID
1.00% , India PS, PIN
0.99% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.98% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.97% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.95% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.94% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.93% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.92% , Water Resources, PHO
0.91% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.88% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.87% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.85% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.85% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.85% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.84% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.82% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.79% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.75% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.74% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.73% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.73% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.72% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.65% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.64% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.58% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.54% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.53% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.52% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.51% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.49% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.48% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.46% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.43% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.41% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.38% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.36% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.35% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.33% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.32% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.23% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.18% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.17% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.04% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.14% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.14% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.19% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.20% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.22% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.29% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.30% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.31% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.33% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.35% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.36% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.46% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.54% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.56% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.56% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.87% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.94% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.98% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.32% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1967.27, 50-day SMA
1906.02, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
