The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,904.01, up 0.91%) rose for the 3rd consecutive trading day and finished above its closing prices of the previous 5 trading days on Monday. SPX has recovered a moderate fraction of its 4-weeks loss, but still it might be premature to speculate that the bull market has revived. SPX remains below both its 50- and 200-day SMAs, now at 1,966.72 and 1,906.39.
NYSE total volume fell 26% to a level 0% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 46, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. Historically, September and October have been the seasonally weakest months of the year for more than a century.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Currently, the U.S. stock market is in a short-term, minor Ripple upside correction within a medium-term Secondary Reaction to the downside.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) declined since making a peak on 10/9/14 and is now systematically neutral. The absolute price of QQQ has been trending down since 9/18/14 and is systematically neutral.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. BKF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 9/10/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/1/14. EEM/SPY has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 10/10/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 months on 10/13/14 and remains systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 2 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 27 months on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX has been trending down since it peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/17/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
23.06% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
13.82% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.23% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
8.54% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.38% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.98% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.27% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
1.44% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
0.66% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.43% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
0.69% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
5.02% , GCI , GANNETT
0.54% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
0.74% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.22% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.66% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.40% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
1.83% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.30% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
1.35% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
1.62% , DLX , DELUXE
1.58% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
3.10% , TER , TERADYNE
0.70% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.89% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.52% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.59% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
0.79% , PID , Dividend International, PID
5.76% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
1.43% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
2.95% , TE , TECO ENERGY
0.02% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
1.43% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-21.19% , NCR , NCR
-7.11% , IBM , IBM
-0.54% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.96% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-3.76% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.03% , CSX , CSX
-1.03% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.95% , AON , AON
-0.72% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-0.46% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.38% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.45% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
-0.69% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.81% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
-0.47% , CR , CRANE
-0.47% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-1.19% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.15% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.02% , India PS, PIN
2.01% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.83% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.76% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.75% , Spain Index, EWP
1.74% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.62% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.59% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.53% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.52% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.52% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.49% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.49% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.43% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.43% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.42% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.41% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.40% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.40% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.39% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.39% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.37% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.37% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.33% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.32% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.28% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.26% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.24% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.21% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.17% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.15% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.15% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.15% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.15% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.12% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.12% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.12% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.10% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.10% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.08% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.08% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.08% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.07% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.06% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.05% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.05% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.04% , Austria Index, EWO
1.03% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.02% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.00% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.00% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.99% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.98% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.98% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.98% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.97% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.97% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.97% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.96% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.96% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.95% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.94% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.90% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.90% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.89% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.87% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.87% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.86% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.84% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.81% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.79% , Dividend International, PID
0.79% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.78% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.77% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.76% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.76% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.74% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.72% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.72% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.72% , Networking, IGN
0.71% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.70% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.70% , Global 100, IOO
0.69% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.69% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.68% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.66% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.66% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.66% , Water Resources, PHO
0.66% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.66% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.63% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.62% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.62% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.62% , Australia Index, EWA
0.58% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.58% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.55% , Canada Index, EWC
0.53% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.50% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.45% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.43% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.42% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.42% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.39% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.37% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.36% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.29% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.29% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.28% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.24% , France Index, EWQ
0.22% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.21% , Italy Index, EWI
0.20% , Energy Global, IXC
0.18% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.14% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.11% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.07% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.05% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.02% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.27% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.35% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.48% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.54% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.69% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.72% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.96% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.03% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.20% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.18% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.70% , Brazil Index, EWZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2019.26, high of 9/19/2014
1966.72, 50-day SMA
1906.39, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
