* Latest Market Developments *

The market place is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement that was deemed surprisingly hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. The Fed ended its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing), which was expected. However, the FOMC statement emphasized the improving U.S. economy, which led many to believe U.S. interest rates will be raised in 2015. The majority of traders and investors were looking for a dovish lean from the FOMC statement. The U.S. dollar index has posted a solid rally in the wake of the FOMC meeting and hit a three-week high overnight. The greenback is hovering near a four-year high. Meantime, the Euro currency and gold prices slumped on the FOMC statement. U.S. stock indexes sold off a bit on the FOMC news Wednesday, and were under modest pressure in early electronic trading Thursday.

In overnight news, the Euro zone got another downbeat economic report Thursday. EU consumer confidence came in at a reading of minus 11.1 in October from minus 11.4 in September. The report met market expectations but is another reminder of the ill economic health of the European Union, which is the world’s third-largest economy.

Nato warplanes are keeping a close eye on large-scale Russian military aircraft maneuvers that are occurring in Europe this week. This is likely more saber-rattling by Russian president Putin.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the third-quarter advance gross domestic product report,

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The market place is significantly less anxious this week. However, there are still geopolitical risk factors lurking just around the corner.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early trading, on profit taking after hitting a four-week high on Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 1,985.75 and then at 2,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,950.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,944.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early trading, on profit taking after hitting a five-week high on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 4,066.00 and then at 4,075.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 4,025.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,014.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a three-week high Wednesday. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,900 and then at 16,950. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 16,825 and then at 16,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls are fading but still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 142 even and then at this week’s high of 142 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 141 8/32 and then at 141 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 126.25.5 and then at Wednesday’s high of 127.00.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 126.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading and hit a three-week high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.535 and then at the October high of 86.870. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.095 and then at 86.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

December Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $82.09 and then at this week’s high of $82.88. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $81.21 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading and are at or near multi-week highs. There has been recent good China demand for soybeans, and there are rail car shortages in the central U.S., which is boosting soybean meal prices. Grain market bulls are in the best technical postures they’ve been in for months. Fledgling price uptrends are in place and the bulls have good near-term momentum to suggest the fledgling price uptrends can be sustained. Traders will closely examine today’s USDA weekly export sales report.