Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/12/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) finished slightly lower, ending a 5-day winning streak. Volume rose for the first time in 5 days.
NYSE total volume rose 11% to a level 2% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months and remain, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/10/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 10/28/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, QQQ absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/11/14 and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 11/10/14. The BKF/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 11/5/14, thereby turning systematically bearish. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/6/14. The EEM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 10/22/14, thereby turning systematically bearish. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/12/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years. Absolute price of EFA also remains systematically bearish, with the declining 50-day SMA falling further below the declining 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) lost bullish momentum since peaking on 10/13/14 and remains neutral. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14 and remains systematically bearish. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14. Absolute price of JNK has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 years on 11/4/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 26.28 and 22.74. Resistance 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.78% , JCP , JC PENNEY
2.95% , TIF , TIFFANY
2.95% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
2.99% , KSS , KOHLS
0.94% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
1.84% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
1.17% , DHR , DANAHER
0.21% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
2.25% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.39% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.52% , TGT , TARGET
2.45% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.41% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
2.53% , SPLS , STAPLES
1.93% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
0.60% , AGN , ALLERGAN
2.02% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
1.27% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
0.68% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.01% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
0.80% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
1.74% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
0.93% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
0.26% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.75% , MBI , MBIA
0.61% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
1.05% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
0.76% , TJX , TJX
1.09% , SYY , SYSCO
0.46% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.35% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
3.78% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
0.19% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.63% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-4.14% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-1.72% , BBT , BB&T
-4.31% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.62% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.75% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-3.40% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-5.71% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-3.00% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-1.28% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-2.89% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.17% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-2.39% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-1.36% , AEE , AMEREN
-1.91% , ED , CON ED
-1.28% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.62% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-2.21% , NI , NISOURCE
-2.35% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-1.94% , PPL , PPL
-1.62% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.99% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-0.64% , PLL , PALL
-1.85% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-2.28% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.64% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.26% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.63% , NEE , NextEra Energy Resources LLC
-0.76% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.32% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.37% , AES , AES
-0.86% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.37% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.15% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.06% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.80% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.80% , Canada Index, EWC
0.76% , Russia MV, RSX
0.69% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.68% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.67% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.60% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.57% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.48% , Networking, IGN
0.47% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.46% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.46% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.46% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.46% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.45% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.39% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.37% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.35% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.34% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.33% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.32% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.32% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.30% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.29% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.27% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.27% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.27% , Water Resources, PHO
0.26% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.26% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.24% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.24% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.24% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.24% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.22% , Dividend International, PID
0.20% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.18% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.15% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.14% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.12% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.12% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.12% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.08% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.05% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.05% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.04% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.03% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.01% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.01% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.00% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.00% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.00% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.01% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.02% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.02% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.03% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.04% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.04% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.04% , India PS, PIN
-0.07% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.08% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.08% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.09% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.10% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.10% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.11% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.14% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.14% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.14% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.15% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.15% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.16% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.16% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.18% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.19% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.20% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.20% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.21% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.21% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.23% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.25% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.29% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.29% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.32% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.32% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.32% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.37% , Global 100, IOO
-0.42% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.43% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.45% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.48% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.48% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.50% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.51% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.51% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.52% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.53% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.56% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.64% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.65% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.67% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.67% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.68% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.73% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.76% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.81% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.83% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.85% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.85% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.86% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.86% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.88% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.89% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.89% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.90% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.91% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.93% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.93% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.94% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.95% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.09% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.16% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.18% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.40% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.43% , France Index, EWQ
-1.51% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.55% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.62% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.70% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.75% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.70% , Italy Index, EWI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2041.28, high of 11/11/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1972.90, 50-day SMA
1921.03, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
