So, the S&P 500 crossed over the 2050 line today, just about 1.5 months ahead of schedule. At least that would be my schedule, as I suggested about two weeks ago that the index would hit that mark by the end of the year. Okay, so technically I am correct, but I don’t want to be.
Historically, the overall market tends to go down Thanksgiving week, so I can expect that might happen again, which would bring the S&P back below 2050. Heck! It could happen today, or tomorrow for that matter. I guess I am getting just a bit ahead of the market. Today is not over and tomorrow is still to come.
I don’t know. I have this feeling that the market is seeing good things into the near and far future. The economic numbers recently have been strongly positive and today’s earnings report from Home Depot and the data on housing suggests the US consumer is feeling a whole lot better these days. The take in the media is that it is the positive jobs outlook driving the confidence.
- Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rebounded in November as low interest rates and a strengthening job market helped boost sales.
Speaking of confidence …
- The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, increased to 11.5 in November from minus 3.6 in October.
That is quite a leap. The take in the media on that is the renewed confidence comes from Germany avoiding a recession. No matter, whatever the impetus behind building confidence here and there and the market movement today, it is positive.
Oil is down, the US dollar is down, the VIX is down, and gold is up. What’s up with that? Are gold traders covering shorts to make a squeeze?
Anyway, I woke up with fogginess this morning, so every word I write requires concentration, which means this morning I am working harder than usual. Given that, I will check out early today, but before I go, here is a consideration, two competing mandates that present an interesting look at the middle of next year.
- By June 2015, the jobless rate will be very close to the 5.2 percent to 5.5 percent that policy makers consider full employment, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month.
- In contrast, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will not have budged from its current 1.4 percent.
So, what on earth will the Fed do in June if those both come to pass?
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
