Junk Bond ETF (JNK) absolute price of fell further below 4-week lows on 11/19/14.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) eased lower by just 0.15%, but the NADSAQ Composite fell 0.57% and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.08%. Stock traders appeared to be discouraged by the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which failed to indicate any new monetary stimulus, which some say is the main reason for a bull market.
NYSE total volume fell less than 1% to a level 3% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months and remain, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory last confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/10/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 11/10/14.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/14/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, QQQ absolute price closed at a new high on 11/18/14 remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 8 months on 11/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/12/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) lost bullish momentum since peaking on 10/13/14 and remains neutral. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. IWM/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/18/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. JNK/LQD fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14 turning systematically bearish. Absolute price of JNK fell further below 4-week lows on 11/19/14. Price has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.44, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 22.74, 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.04% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
7.39% , TGT , TARGET
6.21% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
4.50% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
9.09% , SPLS , STAPLES
6.37% , LOW , LOWES
3.46% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
1.83% , BBY , BEST BUY
1.43% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
2.33% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
0.98% , ACE , ACE
2.21% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.20% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
0.49% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.66% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.23% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.76% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
1.51% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
1.04% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
1.03% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
1.34% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.58% , CIEN.N , CIENA
0.23% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.07% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
0.66% , TIF , TIFFANY
0.15% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.59% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
0.64% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
0.18% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.24% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
0.45% , LB , L Brands, LB
0.83% , RAI , Reynolds American
0.19% , TXN.O , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-19.98% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-3.65% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.71% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-5.30% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-4.75% , AVP , AVON
-4.85% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.21% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-1.57% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.57% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-1.42% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-3.97% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-2.55% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-1.19% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.51% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.43% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-0.45% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.10% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-1.95% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-1.26% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.21% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-1.56% , NBR , NABORS
-0.52% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.08% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.63% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.49% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.70% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.73% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-0.41% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.64% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.62% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-1.61% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-2.89% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.71% , CVG , CONVERGYS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.92% , Brazil Index, EWZ
2.05% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.10% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.07% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.79% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.64% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.52% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.50% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.49% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.45% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.42% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.41% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.41% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.31% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.19% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.18% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.18% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.18% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.17% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.15% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.15% , Energy Global, IXC
0.14% , Russia MV, RSX
0.09% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.06% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.04% , Germany Index, EWG
0.02% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.00% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.00% , France Index, EWQ
0.00% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.02% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.04% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.05% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.05% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.07% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.09% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.10% , Global 100, IOO
-0.11% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.12% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.13% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.13% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.14% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.15% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.15% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.16% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.16% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.16% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.16% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.17% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.17% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.17% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.17% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.18% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.20% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.21% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.22% , Dividend International, PID
-0.22% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.23% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.24% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.25% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.25% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.26% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.26% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.26% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.27% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.27% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.27% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.28% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.30% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.30% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.30% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.33% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.33% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.33% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.34% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.35% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.37% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.38% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.40% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.41% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.43% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.43% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.44% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.45% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.45% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.46% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.47% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.51% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.51% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.52% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.53% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.55% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.55% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.57% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.60% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.62% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.62% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.64% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.65% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.66% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.68% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.71% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.71% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.72% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.72% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.73% , Networking, IGN
-0.76% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.77% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.79% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.80% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.83% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.88% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.90% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.00% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.01% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.05% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.05% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.07% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.07% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.08% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.12% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.12% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.14% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.19% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.42% , India PS, PIN
-1.47% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.54% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.63% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.65% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.55% , Australia Index, EWA
-3.65% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2056.08, high of 11/18/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1977.50, 50-day SMA
1928.01, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
