* Latest Market Developments *

In overnight news, the HSBC China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.0 in November, which is down from 50.4 in October. A PMI reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. That’s just another underlying bearish factor for the beaten-down raw commodity sector. China is the world’s largest importer of raw commodities.

Meantime, the Markit data firm on Thursday reported the European Union’s composite PMI fell to 51.4 in November from 52.1 in October, which is a 16-month low. The survey also showed manufacturers in the EU are not optimistic about future growth. This news helped to pressure European stock markets. It’s also another reason for the European Central Bank to embark on more monetary policy stimulus measures.

The Japanese yen fell to a seven-year low against the U.S. dollar Thursday, as the Bank of Japan’s effort to devalue the yen is working.

The market place is looking ahead to next week’s OPEC meeting. Some believe the beleaguered oil cartel could reduce its overall daily oil production quota, or at least call for strict adherence to existing quotas, most of which are ignored by OPEC nations.

Traders are also already discussing next week’s Swiss referendum which would require the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its assets in gold. A Swiss poll on Wednesday showed the majority of voters were not in favor of the measure. This news was credited in part with weakness in the gold market Wednesday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the consumer price index, the U.S. flash manufacturing PMI, existing home sales, leading economic indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed business survey.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (Geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place…for now. The still-simmering Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the next geopolitical hotspot to escalate.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 March e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early trading on profit taking after hitting a record high earlier this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,040.00 and then at the record high of 2,046.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,018.00 and then at 2,010.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early trading, on profit taking following Tuesday’s 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 4,223.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,246.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 4,192.00 and then at 4,175.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and seeing profit taking from Tuesday’s record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 17,675 and then at 17,700. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at this week’s low of 17,570 and then at 17,550. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 140 15/32 and then at this week’s high of 140 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 140 even and then at the overnight low of 139 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 126.04.0 and then at this week’s high of 126.10.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.20.5 and then at 125.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Prices are still not far below last week’s contract and four-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 88.200 and then at this week’s high of 88.225. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.850 and then at Wednesday’s low of 87.595. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Prices are hovering just above the recent four-year low. Bears remain in solid overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $75.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $75.42. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $73.92 and then at the contract low of $73.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. The grain market bulls are fading as near-term price uptrends have been negated in corn and soybeans. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.