Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. Longer term,
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/12/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/20/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) worked modestly higher on Thursday on lower volume.
NYSE total volume fell 8% to a level 5% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months and remain, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.
The Dow Theory last confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/10/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 11/10/14.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/14/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, QQQ absolute price closed at a new high on 11/18/14 remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 8 months on 11/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/12/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) lost bullish momentum since peaking on 10/13/14 and remains neutral. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. IWM/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute price rose to a new high on 10/15/14. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 17 months on 10/15/14. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/20/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. JNK/LQD fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14 turning systematically bearish. Absolute price of JNK fell further below 4-week lows on 11/19/14. Price has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/6/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.44, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 22.74, 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.28% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.81% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
4.66% , INTC , INTEL
6.98% , BBY , BEST BUY
7.04% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
5.17% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
3.56% , BIG , BIG LOTS
2.08% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
1.91% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
3.90% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.13% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4.36% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.77% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
1.52% , GPS , GAP
3.09% , LB , L Brands, LB
0.70% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
2.28% , KBH , KB HOME
2.28% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.01% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
0.57% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
1.38% , WAT , WATERS
0.84% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.99% , VFC , VF
0.08% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.82% , XRX , XEROX
1.76% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
1.80% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.28% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
0.92% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
1.26% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.98% , TJX , TJX
0.38% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.41% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.54% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-1.30% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.21% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-2.15% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-0.65% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-1.71% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-1.17% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.98% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-1.17% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-1.11% , DE , DEERE & CO
-1.12% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-0.39% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-0.65% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.63% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-0.63% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-0.53% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-1.08% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-0.74% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.75% , INTU , INTUIT
-0.42% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.52% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.40% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.39% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-1.02% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.58% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.60% , EFA , EAFE Index, EFA
-0.24% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-0.40% , GOOG , Google
-1.33% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-0.06% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.42% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.13% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.80% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.70% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.60% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.59% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.54% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.45% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.30% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.26% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.25% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.25% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.18% , Networking, IGN
1.16% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.12% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.11% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.10% , Energy Global, IXC
1.06% , Russia MV, RSX
1.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.04% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.03% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.97% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.95% , Canada Index, EWC
0.93% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.91% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.84% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.84% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.78% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.72% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.72% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.66% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.63% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.56% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.52% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.52% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.51% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.51% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.51% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.49% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.48% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.48% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.45% , India PS, PIN
0.45% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.44% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.43% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.42% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.40% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.40% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.39% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.38% , Water Resources, PHO
0.38% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.38% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.35% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.33% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.33% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.31% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.30% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.30% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.28% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.28% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.28% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.27% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.27% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.26% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.25% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.24% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.23% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.22% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.22% , Dividend International, PID
0.22% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.21% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.20% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.19% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.18% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.18% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.18% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.18% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.18% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.16% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.15% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.14% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.11% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.10% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.09% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.08% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.07% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.04% , Germany Index, EWG
0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.00% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.05% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.06% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.07% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.09% , Global 100, IOO
-0.14% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.15% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.17% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.17% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.18% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.21% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.22% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.24% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.25% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.26% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.27% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.30% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.31% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.33% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.39% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.39% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.41% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.42% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.42% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.42% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.43% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.43% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.51% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.54% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.58% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.58% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.60% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.62% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.65% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.67% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.68% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.97% , France Index, EWQ
-1.03% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.30% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.34% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.56% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.63% , Spain Index, EWP
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2056.08, high of 11/18/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1978.60, 50-day SMA
1929.40, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
