U.S. Dollar, Bonds, and Stocks are Rising

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/21/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute closing price rose to its highest level in a month on 11/21/14, suggesting renewed upside momentum.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) finished at a new all-time closing price high to reconfirm its preexisting uptrend.

NYSE total volume rose 25% to a level 18% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.

U.S. stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been present for months, and there is some tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/21/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/14/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, QQQ absolute price closed at a new high on 11/21/14 remains systematically bullish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 8 months on 11/18/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 9 years on 11/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 10 years on 11/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting systematically bearish trend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) lost bullish momentum since peaking on 10/13/14 and remains neutral. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. IWM/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has been relatively weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 weeks on 11/19/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/10/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 11/21/14.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) absolute closing price rose to its highest level in a month on 11/21/14, suggesting renewed upside momentum. TLT crossed above its 50-day SMA on 9/25/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) absolute closing price rose to its highest level in 3 weeks on 11/21/14, suggesting renewed upside momentum. IEF crossed above its 50-day SMA on 10/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/20/14, suggesting renewed bearish momentum. JNK/LQD fell below its lows of the previous 23 months on 10/15/14. JNK/LQD 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/1/14 turning systematically bearish. Absolute price of JNK fell further below 4-week lows on 11/19/14. Price has turned unusually volatile since 6/24/14.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/18/14.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/21/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.44, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 22.74, 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 10/16/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.21% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
5.83% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
7.32% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.97% , PIN , India PS, PIN
3.08% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
3.19% , EEM , Emerging Markets, EEM
5.19% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
4.27% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
4.38% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
3.69% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
2.20% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
6.06% , ADSK , AUTODESK
1.90% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
3.12% , CMI , CUMMINS
6.86% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.86% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.04% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
2.79% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.96% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
2.39% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.29% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
1.07% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
3.02% , PKI , PERKINELMER
2.41% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
1.31% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
3.82% , TYC , TYCO INTL
3.57% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
13.13% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
2.12% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.40% , A , AGILENT TECH
1.72% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
3.94% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
1.95% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.19% , GPS , GAP
-2.19% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-1.48% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-1.01% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-0.50% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-0.67% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-0.58% , BBT , BB&T
-0.86% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-0.53% , FISV , FISERV
-0.57% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-1.12% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-0.37% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.13% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-0.53% , CLX , CLOROX
-2.14% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-0.35% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.26% , K , KELLOGG
-0.82% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.03% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.42% , SNA , SNAP ON
-0.82% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.18% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.59% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
-0.95% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.13% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-0.17% , CB , CHUBB
-0.28% , PCG , PG&E
-0.22% , EBAY , EBAY
-0.25% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-0.96% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-0.22% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-0.07% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-0.14% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
6.86% , Brazil Index, EWZ
5.21% , Latin Am 40, ILF
4.38% , South Africa Index, EZA
3.89% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.69% , China 25 iS, FXI
3.19% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
3.08% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.79% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.64% , Italy Index, EWI
2.39% , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.20% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.12% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.02% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.97% , India PS, PIN
1.95% , Spain Index, EWP
1.93% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.85% , Russia MV, RSX
1.71% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.64% , Energy Global, IXC
1.60% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.41% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.40% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.39% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.33% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.33% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.31% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.30% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.30% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.29% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.29% , France Index, EWQ
1.29% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.25% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.25% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.24% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.23% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.22% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.22% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.15% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.10% , Germany Index, EWG
1.10% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.08% , Australia Index, EWA
1.07% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.02% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.01% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.99% , Austria Index, EWO
0.98% , Canada Index, EWC
0.97% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.90% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.87% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.87% , Dividend International, PID
0.87% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.87% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.85% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.84% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.81% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.77% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.74% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.73% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.73% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.70% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.68% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.68% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.67% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.64% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.62% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.61% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.60% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.60% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.60% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.57% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.57% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.57% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.56% , Global 100, IOO
0.55% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.55% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.55% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.54% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.54% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.54% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.54% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.53% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.53% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.52% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.51% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.51% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.51% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.50% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.50% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.50% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.50% , Water Resources, PHO
0.49% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.48% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.48% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.47% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.47% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.47% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.46% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.46% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.46% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.45% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.44% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.43% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.43% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.43% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.41% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.41% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.41% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.41% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.41% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.40% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.36% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.30% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.27% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.26% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.25% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.24% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.24% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.23% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.23% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.22% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.20% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.20% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.19% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.16% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.14% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.12% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.12% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.10% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.03% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.04% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.10% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.10% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.12% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.20% , Networking, IGN
-0.30% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.55% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2071.46, high of 11/18/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1980.16, 50-day SMA
1930.74, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009