* Latest Market Developments *

U.S. stock indexes are firmer to start the trading week and hovering near their recent record or multi-year highs. It could be a quieter trading week in the U.S. as the Thanksgiving holiday is Thursday.

European shares rallied overnight on the lingering bullish impact of fresh monetary stimulus announced by the European Central Bank late last week. Most world stock market bulls were also cheered by Friday’s surprise monetary policy easing by China’s central bank. With the world’s major economies awash in liquidity, the stock markets have been the main beneficiaries of such. But many veteran market watchers remain worried about the specter of problematic price inflation arising at some point down the road.

In overnight news the closely watched German Ifo Institute’s business confidence survey showed a rise to 104.7 in November from 103.2 in October. This was the first rise in months. The market place expected a reading of 103.0.

The market place is looking ahead to Thursday’s OPEC meeting. Some believe the beleaguered oil cartel could reduce its overall daily oil production quota, or at least call for strict adherence to existing quotas, most of which are ignored by OPEC nations. Nymex crude oil futures are trading not far above the recent three-year low. This could be a “make-or-break meeting for OPEC. Saudi Arabia and Iran will be the key players at the OPEC meeting.

The much-anticipated Swiss gold referendum vote is on Nov. 30. The “Save Our Gold” measure would require the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its assets in gold reserves. Early polls suggest the measure will not pass.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash services purchasing managers index (PMI), and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (Geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place…for now. The still-simmering Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the next geopolitical hotspot to escalate.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 March e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and hovering just below Friday’s record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 2,065.00 and then at 2,075.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,050.00 and then at Friday’s low of 2,043.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and are just below Friday’s 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 4,275.00 and then at Friday’s high of 4,281.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 4,250.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,240.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and are just below Friday’s record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s record high of 17,865 and then at 17,900. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 17,780 and then at Friday’s low of 17,745. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker early today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 140 26/32 and then at 141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 140 even and then at last week’s low of 139 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.02.0 and then at the November high of 126.10.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125.24.0 and then at last week’s low of 125.17.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a contract and four-year high overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 88.800 and then at 89.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 88.250 and then at 88.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are hovering not far above the recent four-year low. Bears remain in firm overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.00 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $75.62 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The grain market bulls are fading as near-term price uptrends have been negated in corn and soybeans. Wheat still sees a near-term price uptrend in place. Focus has turned to worldwide demand and the prospects for the South American corn and soybean crops.