Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell further below its lows of the previous 12 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
Energy Sector SPDR ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell further below 9-year lows on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below its lows of the previous 9 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell further below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell further below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) fell further below its lows of the past 6 weeks on Monday, reconfirming the short-term price pullback that started on 12/8/14. Seasonal tendencies are bullish for the last half of December, but the bears have momentum for the moment, and so days ahead could see more downside follow through. Longer term, SPX closed above all previous closing prices on Friday 12/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting 5.8-year-old uptrend.
NYSE total volume rose 4% to a level 32% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/24/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both averages declined last week, but it is only an insignificant Minor Ripple correction, so far at least.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/28/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. In addition, QQQ absolute price closed at a new high on 11/28/14.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose to a new high closing price on 12/12/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 120.13, 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose to a new high closing price on 12/12/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 104.93, 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 12/12/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of JNK fell below 17-month lows on 12/12/14 and remains systematically bearish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 23.20, 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 24.22, 25.89, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell further below its lows of the previous 12 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 24.73, 27.85, 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/28/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.25% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
0.74% , PST , Bond, 200% Short 7-10 Yr T, PST
2.90% , ORCL.K , ORACLE
1.24% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
0.49% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.84% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
0.87% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
2.80% , NBR , NABORS
1.51% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
1.87% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.71% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
1.81% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
1.04% , JWN , NORDSTROM
1.24% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.23% , DE , DEERE & CO
0.47% , FHN , First Horizon National
1.01% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.31% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.69% , SYY , SYSCO
0.52% , PCG , PG&E
0.70% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.50% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.69% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
1.23% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
1.56% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
2.08% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.58% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.99% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
0.34% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.93% , KMX , CarMax
0.89% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
0.34% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
0.29% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.84% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.35% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-7.02% , GDX , GOLD MINERS MARKET VECTORS ETF
-5.09% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-4.27% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.99% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-4.50% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.16% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-4.74% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.58% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.11% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.24% , NCR , NCR
-3.68% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-2.54% , SGOL.K , Gold, ETFS Physical Swiss Gold, SGOL
-4.59% , AVP , AVON
-1.39% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-4.78% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-0.69% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-4.55% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.19% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-3.65% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.66% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-2.61% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-1.38% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-2.62% , A , AGILENT TECH
-2.95% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-2.03% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-6.57% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.57% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.15% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.83% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-2.57% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-4.17% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.02% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.58% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.29% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.28% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.24% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.17% , Networking, IGN
0.05% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.06% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.09% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.09% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.11% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.18% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.19% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.21% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.27% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.28% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.31% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.33% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.36% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.39% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.46% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.50% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.50% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.53% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.56% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.59% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.59% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.60% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.60% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.60% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.61% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.65% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.66% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.67% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.67% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.67% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.67% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.67% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.69% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.69% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.69% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.69% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.70% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.70% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.71% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.71% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.71% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.71% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.71% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.71% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.73% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.73% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.73% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.77% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.78% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.79% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.80% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.80% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.81% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.83% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.85% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.86% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.86% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.87% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.87% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.87% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.88% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.89% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.89% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.90% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.91% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.91% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.91% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.92% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.92% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.93% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.99% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.01% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.01% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.02% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.02% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.03% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.03% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.09% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.09% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.11% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.13% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.15% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.15% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.18% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.21% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.26% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.29% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.30% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.34% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.37% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.38% , Global 100, IOO
-1.39% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.43% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.45% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.50% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.51% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.51% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.52% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.58% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.59% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.61% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.66% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.68% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.72% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.72% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.74% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.76% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.77% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.88% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.94% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.94% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.97% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.99% , Dividend International, PID
-1.99% , France Index, EWQ
-1.99% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.01% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.02% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.28% , Germany Index, EWG
-2.30% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.33% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.54% , India PS, PIN
-2.57% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.58% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.66% , Austria Index, EWO
-2.68% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.79% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-3.65% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.97% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.27% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-4.50% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-4.55% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.64% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-5.09% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-11.84% , Russia MV, RSX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2079.47, high of 12/5/2013
2001.18, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1946.95, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
