Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of JNK fell below 3-years lows on 12/16/14 and remains systematically bearish.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. ..
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) fell further below its lows of the past 6 weeks on Tuesday, reconfirming the short-term price pullback that started on 12/8/14. Seasonal tendencies are bullish for the last half of December, but the bears still have momentum, for the moment, at least. Longer term, SPX closed above all previous closing prices on Friday 12/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting 5.8-year-old uptrend.
NYSE total volume rose 14% to a level 50% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/24/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. Both averages declined last week, but it is only an insignificant Minor Ripple correction, so far at least.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) began a minor downtrend after rising above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/28/14.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 120.13, 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 104.93, 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of JNK fell below 3-years lows on 12/16/14 and remains systematically bearish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 23.20, 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 24.22, 25.89, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 9/22/14, reconfirming a significant downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell further below its lows of the previous 12 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 24.73, 27.85, 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/28/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.76% , UIS , UNISYS
0.50% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.73% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
4.05% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.65% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
3.26% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
2.32% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
2.72% , CVS , CVS
3.23% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
2.73% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
1.97% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
1.40% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.39% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
1.54% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.14% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.90% , EBAY , EBAY
2.33% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
1.05% , EL , Estee Lauder
2.00% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
2.48% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
3.28% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
2.60% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.44% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
2.06% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.44% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
0.16% , GVI , Bond, Intermediate U.S. Gov, GVI
1.71% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
1.33% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
1.78% , BA , BOEING
1.71% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.61% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
0.89% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
1.40% , MMM , 3M
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.45% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-5.50% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-1.03% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-4.01% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-4.67% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-4.61% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.44% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-12.82% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-4.87% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-4.06% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-1.48% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-2.77% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-3.60% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
-3.24% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-1.87% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-3.07% , C , CITIGROUP
-3.00% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.06% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-5.93% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-2.59% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-2.38% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.20% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-1.26% , TGT , TARGET
-3.58% , GOOG , Google
-1.50% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
-3.24% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.99% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-0.84% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.22% , MTB , M&T BANK
-2.39% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-0.84% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.17% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.33% , NKE , NIKE STK B
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.23% , Russia MV, RSX
1.93% , Italy Index, EWI
1.71% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.65% , Energy Global, IXC
1.54% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.44% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.44% , Canada Index, EWC
1.41% , Germany Index, EWG
1.24% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.20% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.19% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.14% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.14% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.12% , France Index, EWQ
1.11% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.04% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.01% , Dividend International, PID
0.96% , Spain Index, EWP
0.93% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.90% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.90% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.89% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.85% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.82% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.80% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.72% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.62% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.57% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.55% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.55% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.50% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.49% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.41% , Australia Index, EWA
0.38% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.24% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.21% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.20% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.15% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.15% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.09% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.09% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.07% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.05% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.01% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.03% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.09% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.13% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.13% , Global 100, IOO
-0.13% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.14% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.15% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.16% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.16% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.17% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.17% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.17% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.18% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.20% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.21% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.22% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.22% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.23% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.24% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.29% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.29% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.29% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.29% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.30% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.33% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.34% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.34% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.35% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.36% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.38% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.39% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.43% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.46% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.46% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.47% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.51% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.51% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.53% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.55% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.58% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.58% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.58% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.60% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.62% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.62% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.64% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.65% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.68% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.68% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.70% , Networking, IGN
-0.70% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.71% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.72% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.74% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.74% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.75% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.76% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.77% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.78% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.79% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.79% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.80% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.81% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.84% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.86% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.91% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.92% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.96% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.98% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.98% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.04% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.06% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.07% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.09% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.10% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.16% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.19% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.28% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.29% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.33% , India PS, PIN
-1.34% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.37% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.38% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.50% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.53% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.54% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.60% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.63% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.35% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.38% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.52% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2079.47, high of 12/5/2013
2001.34, 50-day SMA
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1947.44, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
