U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/19/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend.
U.S. dollar index futures continuation contract absolute price rose to its highest price level in more than 8 years on 12/19/14.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) gapped higher again on Friday and rose further in the afternoon to close above the closing prices of the previous 9 trading days. U.S. stocks have become unusually volatile over the past 2 weeks, elevating short-term trading risks. Traditionally, seasonal tendencies have been bullish for the last half of December, although this year seasonality might be front-loaded with little upside remaining. Longer term, SPX closed above all previous closing prices on Friday 12/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting 5.8-year-old uptrend.
NYSE total volume rose 24% to a level 75% above its 200-day SMA, reflecting typical position adjustments at expiration of options and futures on the third Friday of December. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/24/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. After 11/24/14, both averages entered insignificant Minor Ripple corrections.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) began a minor downtrend after rising above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/28/14.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 120.13, 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 104.93, 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of JNK fell below 3-years lows on 12/16/14 and remains systematically bearish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/19/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 23.20, 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 24.22, 25.89, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 10 months on 12/17/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell further below its lows of the previous 12 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 24.73, 27.85, 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/28/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.54% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
3.58% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
10.63% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
11.22% , KMX , CarMax
2.71% , MKC , MCCORMICK
6.36% , CTAS , CINTAS
14.63% , NBR , NABORS
17.72% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
8.16% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
7.89% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
1.93% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
3.02% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
2.33% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
5.60% , HES , AMERADA HESS
2.83% , GCI , GANNETT
1.57% , PLL , PALL
3.01% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.68% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
5.34% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
2.96% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
0.67% , ZION , ZIONS
1.10% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
2.10% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
5.89% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
2.72% , XOM , EXXON MOBIL
0.99% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
1.71% , TXT , TEXTRON
1.96% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.77% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.40% , AN , AUTONATION
0.54% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
4.87% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.57% , FAST , Fastenal Company
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.79% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-3.52% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-1.75% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-2.23% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.19% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-3.08% , HAR , Harman International
-0.79% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-1.76% , INTC , INTEL
-2.17% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-1.39% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-3.04% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-1.07% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-0.73% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.29% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.38% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-1.97% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
-0.57% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-1.83% , RAI , Reynolds American
-2.31% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.82% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.05% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
-0.40% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-0.89% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-1.74% , HUM , HUMANA
-1.07% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.38% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-1.69% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.18% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-1.55% , WAG , WALGREEN
-0.52% , FISV , FISERV
-1.17% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-0.89% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-1.57% , VFC , VF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
8.51% , Russia MV, RSX
6.11% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
5.88% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4.95% , Energy DJ, IYE
2.99% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
2.89% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.56% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.52% , Energy Global, IXC
1.48% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.34% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.28% , Australia Index, EWA
1.19% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.13% , Canada Index, EWC
1.05% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.04% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
1.02% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.01% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.99% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.96% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.93% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.92% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.88% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.78% , Networking, IGN
0.78% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.77% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.75% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.74% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.71% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.70% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.68% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.67% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.65% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.60% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.55% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.54% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.53% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.52% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.52% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.52% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.52% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.49% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.49% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.49% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.49% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.48% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.48% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.47% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.46% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.45% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.44% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.42% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.41% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.40% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.39% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.38% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.37% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.34% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.33% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.32% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.31% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.31% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.28% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.27% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.27% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.26% , Dividend International, PID
0.25% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.24% , Water Resources, PHO
0.23% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.23% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.22% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.22% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.21% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.20% , Austria Index, EWO
0.19% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.18% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.16% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.16% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.16% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.15% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.13% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.13% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.12% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.12% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.09% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.08% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.07% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.06% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.02% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.01% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.01% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.03% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.04% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.05% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.05% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.05% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.07% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.07% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.08% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.09% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.12% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.13% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.13% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.13% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.14% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.16% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.23% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.28% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.32% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.33% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.37% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.41% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.44% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.49% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.54% , Global 100, IOO
-0.60% , France Index, EWQ
-0.64% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.64% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.67% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.72% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.72% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.73% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.77% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.80% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.80% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.81% , India PS, PIN
-0.82% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.00% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.07% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.11% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.14% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.45% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-2.65% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2079.47, high of 12/5/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
2007.59, 50-day SMA
1950.02, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
