* Latest Market Developments *

In a holiday-shortened trading week, activity could briefly pick up Tuesday, as the main U.S. economic report for this week is on deck: be the third-quarter gross domestic product report. GDP is expected to be up 4.3%, year-on-year, versus the previous reading of up 3.9%. Tuesday could be the busiest trading day of the week as there are also several other key U.S. economic reports due out. Look for trading activity to then quickly fade ahead of the Christmas holiday Thursday, and to remain light until the new year begins.

Crude oil prices are a higher Tuesday on short covering, but the bears are still in command as prices hover near a five-year low. The other key “outside market” finds the U.S. dollar index slightly higher and hit another four-year high overnight.

The Russian ruble has stabilized this week, following last week’s serious erosion against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. Reports Tuesday said the Russian central bank sold $420 million of its foreign currency reserves last week to support the beleaguered ruble.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the GDP report, durable goods orders, revised corporate profits, the Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, the Richmond Fed business survey, and personal income and outlays.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Geopolitical risk assessment has faded a bit, but risks have not evaporated.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 March e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher and hovering near last week’s record high in early trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the last week’s record high of 2,076.25 and then at 2,085.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,064.00 and then at 2,056.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading as the bulls have upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 4,304.00 and then at 4,325.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 4,280.00 and then at 4,258.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading as the bulls have good upside momentum. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 17,950 and then at the record high of 17,975. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 17,875 and then at Monday’s low of 17,825. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have faded a bit but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 144 25/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 144 10/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 126.26.5 and then at 127.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 126.16.5 and then at last week’s low of 126.09.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading and hit a contract and four-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 90.000 and then at 90.150. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 89.580 and then at 89.380. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering in a bear market. Prices are not far above last week’s five-year low. Bears remain in solid overall near-term technical control amid still no early clues of a market bottom being close at hand. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $56.85 and then at $57.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $55.00 and then at $54.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were mixed in overnight trading. Wheat is firmer and continues to be the upside leader. Corn and wheat market bulls have upside near-term technical momentum heading into the end of the year, but soybeans are seeing choppy and sideways trading. Unless soybean prices perk up soon, I cannot see wheat and corn futures sustaining their uptrends.