Foreign Stocks Underperform as U.S. Dollar Rises

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/23/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/23/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX) opened higher again on Tuesday but could not sustain upside momentum after that. It closed below the open but above the previous closing price high. Seasonal tendencies are bullish for the last half of December. Longer term, SPX closed above all previous closing prices on 12/23/14, reconfirming its preexisting 5.8-year-old uptrend.

NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 9% below its 200-day SMA, reflecting seasonal tendencies for this holiday week. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/24/14 when the both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs. After 11/24/14, both averages entered insignificant Minor Ripple corrections.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) began a minor downtrend after rising above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/28/14.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, BKF/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time over the past 4 years.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term, EEM/SPY has been systematically bearish most of the time since making a high on 10/14/10.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/23/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 10/10/14 but has stabilized since, turning more neutral.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 120.13, 118.21, 112.73, 110.34, 109.61, 107.17, 105.60, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose to a new high closing price on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 104.93, 104.45, 102.45, 102.20, 101.52, 100.86, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 108.88, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of JNK fell below 3-years lows on 12/16/14 and remains systematically bearish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/23/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. The rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA on 8/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 23.20, 22.45, 21.66, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 24.22, 25.89, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 10 months on 12/17/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 8/29/14, thereby giving a systematically bearish signal.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell further below its lows of the previous 12 years on 12/15/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 16.70, and 10.35. Resistance 24.73, 27.85, 30.17, 31.63, 35.62, 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support: 102.28 and 84.92. Resistance: 120.50, 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Absolute price of GDX fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 10/31/14.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 4 years on 11/5/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Support 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 17.09, 17.74, 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 years on 12/16/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The trend of SLV/GLD has pointed down most of the time since it peaked on 4/28/11, and Silver continues to underperform Gold.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/28/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. JJC has been in a major downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.42% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
4.56% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
4.31% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
1.71% , SYK , STRYKER
3.02% , WAG , WALGREEN
4.28% , UIS , UNISYS
3.06% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
2.35% , CHD , Church & Dwight
2.18% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.31% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.78% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
2.07% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.50% , IUSV.K , Value Core U.S. iS, IUSV
1.33% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
0.84% , BLK , BlackRock Inc.
0.67% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.80% , CIEN.N , CIENA
1.60% , KSS , KOHLS
1.31% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
1.24% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
0.26% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.42% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
0.49% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.32% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.48% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
0.96% , BC , BRUNSWICK
0.83% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
0.62% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
0.61% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.43% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
0.22% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.55% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
1.76% , NCR , NCR
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.45% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-4.26% , AMGN , AMGEN
-3.29% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-5.16% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.44% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
-2.29% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-2.51% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-2.27% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-0.89% , BND , Bond, TOTAL MARKET VANGUARD
-3.11% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-1.99% , PFE , PFIZER
-1.84% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.37% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-2.97% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-4.69% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-0.33% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.50% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
-0.23% , GVI , Bond, Intermediate U.S. Gov, GVI
-1.23% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-2.30% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-0.68% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.13% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.22% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.68% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.39% , BSV , Bond, SHORT-TERM VANGUARD ETF
-0.36% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
-0.37% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.13% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.16% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-0.28% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.26% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.31% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.11% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.22% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
3.06% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.22% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.27% , Canada Index, EWC
1.22% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.21% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.13% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.11% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.04% , Energy Global, IXC
1.01% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.93% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.86% , Water Resources, PHO
0.82% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.78% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.75% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.69% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.67% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.65% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.61% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.57% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.56% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.56% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.53% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.51% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.50% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.50% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.49% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.47% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.46% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.44% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.44% , France Index, EWQ
0.43% , Italy Index, EWI
0.40% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.37% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.37% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.36% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.35% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.35% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.34% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.34% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.33% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.32% , Austria Index, EWO
0.32% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.31% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.31% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.30% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.28% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.27% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.26% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.26% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.26% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.25% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.25% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.24% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.23% , Dividend International, PID
0.22% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.22% , Spain Index, EWP
0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.21% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.19% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.19% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.19% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.18% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.18% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.17% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.17% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.16% , Networking, IGN
0.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.15% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.14% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.14% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.13% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.13% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.10% , Global 100, IOO
0.07% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.05% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.05% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.03% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.03% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.01% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.03% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.07% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.10% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.10% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.11% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.14% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.20% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.21% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.22% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.23% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.25% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.25% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.26% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.28% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.31% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.32% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.33% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.35% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.37% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.37% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.38% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.38% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.39% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.39% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.41% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.44% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.46% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.50% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.51% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.53% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.54% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.54% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.56% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.57% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.65% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.68% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.68% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.68% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.72% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.76% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.77% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.80% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.83% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.87% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.91% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.91% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.06% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.07% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.13% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.43% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.76% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.84% , India PS, PIN
-1.98% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.29% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-3.44% , Russia MV, RSX
-5.16% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
2086.73, high of 12/23/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
2015.19, 50-day SMA
1952.10, 200-day SMA
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1820.66, low of 10/15/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009