The market is up big out of the gate, which is not surprising since yesterday it was down big. China, Alcoa, small business confidence, wages, Europe, and oil all are in the news today, and all those things are good, so what gives?
- China’s December trade figures have beaten expectations with exports up 9.7% and … The final numbers for the year mean exports rose 6.1% in 2014 compared with 2013.
- Alcoa delivered quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations on Monday,
- U.S. small business optimism jumped in December to its highest level in more than eight years, underscoring the economy’s strengthening fundamentals despite slowing global growth.
- A rise in retail shares pushed up European equities on Tuesday, while expectations of new economic stimulus measures from the European Central Bank (ECB) also propped up stock markets.
- Crude oil prices hit their lowest in almost six years on Tuesday in a market readying for further falls, as a big OPEC producer stood by the group’s decision not to cut output to tackle a supply glut.
Okay, so my question above is a bit snarky, but I do wonder sometimes what runs through the collective head of the market. Okay, so that is not true, as I completely understand the market is often an irrational creature in the near term, and that is what we have these days – irrationality in the market.
Even today with all of the above great economic news, the market is showing huge volatility. The swing in the Dow today is some 425 points, from green to red.
So, there is not much to say until the market settles down to reality. Heck, even the talking heads are cooperating in giving he market a reason to go higher and stay higher – the talk of deflation and not, I repeat not, raising rates in 2015.
Yet, here we are – the market is falling rapidly from the highs of this morning. So, as I said, there is not much to say until the market comes back to reality, which is:
The US economic picture is bright and brightening, and, more than likely, corporate earnings will follow right along, as will China and Europe, or so one would think, given the reality that as goes the US, so goes the rest of the world.
Given this, let’s just sit tight and let the market do what it does, now and then – get freaky.
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
