I am not a betting man … Oh wait! Actually I am a betting man. I invest in and trade the market and anybody who does that is a betting man, or woman. So, right now, in the current state of affairs in the market, I think it is safe bet that:
1) Oil will fall back again.
- Crude oil futures fell on Wednesday, unable to build on more than 1 percent gains in the previous session as rising inventories continue to curb rallies.
Oil might have found a temporary bottom and a temporary ceiling, which means it has found a temporary trading range, but, the fact is that today the news was as it has been, not fundamentally good for the oil bulls.
2) Greece will come to terms with its reality, and so will the Eurozone.
- Greece’s leftist-led government said it will submit a request to the euro zone on Thursday to extend a “loan agreement” for up to six months, raising prospects of a last-minute deal to keep the heavily indebted country afloat.
Both entities need each other and all this posturing is just a out getting the best possible hand when the dealing is done.
3) The S&P 500 finding a new high cracking the 2100 milestone is in no way indicative a market on drugs.
- U.S. stocks were modestly lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 ended above 2,100 for the first time, as investors looked ahead to comments from the Federal Reserve.
My bet here is that whenever the Fed does raise rates, it won’t really amount to a hill of beans in the market, as the market has already used the beans to make a bean pie. Okay, that is just a way to carry on the metaphor. I could have said, the Fed business is already baked into the cake, more or less. Everyone knows it is coming and my guess is that January’s and February’s volatility told us that.
4) There will be days when the market simply shrugs of the news.
- U.S. manufacturing output rose modestly in January and not at all in December, potentially worrisome signs for the U.S. economy given the recent strength in the dollar and weaker overseas markets.
Blah … blah … blah … US housing starts were down today as well, but the market seems to have shrugged it off, so, as a betting man, I say, sans really bad news, we see a flat market in the near term (February-March), and we see a move-busting market up until summer.
Anything can happen in the summer when the big money vacates, but in the even longer term, the latter part of the year, if the US keeps on truckin’, Europe and Japan get on board, and corporate profits keep on growing, well, are we looking at Dow 20,000 and S&P 500 2300 by the end of the year?
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
