The weekly export-sales report showed beans sold last week for future shipment at a negative 176-thousand metric tons. Note the negative.  This means once we added up all of the new sales and subtracted cancelations, we had more cancelations than new business.  As well, note export sales are at 99% of the USDA projected exports for the new marketing year ending September 1st.  This means that the USDA would have to either increase its export projections or beans have to stop selling. 

It appears China has changed its purchasing plan.  An unknown decrease of 242-thousand and a 355-thousand metric ton switch from old crop delivery dates before September 1st until after September 1st in the new marketing year is how the negative numbers came in. 

In the new marketing year, 2015-16, China purchased 415-thousand metric tons. It is clear that China has switched its buying to Brazilian ports, making the U.S. now a secondary port of origin until our new crop comes in this fall. 

We should expect to see negative weekly sales in the weeks ahead, as Brazil winds down on its harvest and export season selling its beans at a discount to any US posted price.  Thursday’s low on July beans was 9.50, right on support. Any close below this level sets up 9.35 as next support. 

Though 9.35 seems possible it’s not likely to close under until it becomes clear how many soybeans will actually be planted and growing conditions on early planting.  To break through 9.35, we will need continued rains in the southern delta farmers must switch from planting corn to planting beans.  This will all come into play in three weeks. 

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RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.