At the two day Fed meeting this week the committee will gather survey responses asking for new economic projections. This happens at the ‘quarterly’ meetings with a comprehensive review by the Chair in a post-meeting press conference. The idea here is more transparency and less ‘hiding’. Yet, in the past the data here has not been looked upon as important, but I believe this time it will be.
All Greek tragedies aside for a moment, the Fed is wrangling with the timing over soon-to-happen rate hikes. Oh, we know it’s when and not if – but the expectation is that a cycle will begin, and the uncertainty of where that lift will end has many puzzled.
The Fed should give some sort of clear explanation this week, but it’s the economic forecasts for inflation, GDP and employment that have been curious. The latter being the strongest gauge so far, if inflation expectations stay under 1.5% as they did last time then we’re not going to get a quick rise. The bond market is telling us this much, too.
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