Gold looks bound and determined to run up to 1650 or 1700. At this point, we should start moving 50 bucks a chunk. A ten percent move now gets us to 1760 to the upside. Ten percent to the down side gets us to 1440. 1600 saw us break twice down to 1583. We were able to scalp some decent money out of those shorts.
Never one to get married to a position, With this action, I like buying dips against 1600. Again, if you get long, put a stop in below in case this market flips and melts lower.
You don’t’ want to go to bed at 11pm one night and wake up to some over seas event cuts the equity in your account by 80 percent.
In Dow Cash, we have a 12750 double top on the daily charts. Support is at 12,300. We are consolidating here, probably anticipating the debt resolution.
My degree at Colgate was in political science. I took a lot of econ courses as well. But I really liked history and political history in particular. Based on my knowledge if US political history, I can’t imagine this debt ceiling issue become a major road block. I think both the Dems and Repubs will take it “down to the wire” for political theater.
They’s emerge from the white house and the capital building with their shirt sleeves rolled up, perhaps w/ a five o’clock shadow, ties loosened around their necks, perhaps with some extra dark make up under their eyes for the cameras. Then they can both preach to their core constituents that they “fought the good fight” but in the end, decided to put the country’s best interest at heart.
At that point, we actually may have a market sell off. A buy the rumor-sell the fact correction. Every average joe would expect the market to rally on the “good news”. That’s exactly when bulls might get slapped w/ a correction right before August. Remember 1) August sees most of Europe take a vacation and 2) typically in my 23 years out here in Chicago, August ranks right behind December as the worst month to be actively trading. Typically the only people left trading are guys who are down for the first 1/2 of the year and they are pushing the markets around, which leads to sideways chop.
On a final note for the grains, we have had incredibly bullish fundamentals with the wet spring followed by extreme heat. Corn is not acting well. Nov beans can not get above 14.00… Why is that?
That is all.
Good Trading
CER
