The biggest rallies occur in bear markets and equities have had an impressive run after leaving behind a double-bottom in January and February – but the “end is near”. In election years, March is a seasonally strong month for equities but this year, the March rally got started early in the first half of February. Several signs point to a top either last Friday or sometime this week.
On Friday, the Dow closed at the 61.8% retracement of the November-January decline. In addition, this level makes the February rally equal to 150% of the January rally. Either level would be reason enough to expect a top but the two together make for meaningful resistance.
A 6 month cycle high is due this week and a micro-cycle high is expected near Thursday. Even the Bradley Model is calling for a turn near this Friday.
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