May Crude Oil traded lower into early Thursday morning (March 31st), making its low for the day during the night trading session at 37.57. This was just below the daily S1 support level (37.68) and Crude Oil rallied into the US open reaching 38.45 before turning lower and making a run to test the low of the day, reaching 37.82 before reversing and making a new high at 38.65. Crude spent the rest of the session grinding lower and settled just 2 ticks above yesterday’s close at 38.34. After settlement, Crude meandered lower and ended the day at 38.11. Thursday’s trade was rather dull for the end of the month and 1st quarter. I was looking for a more extreme type of day with more volatility. I guess I wanted price to show resolve around the 21 DMA (38.41), either to the downside or above the moving average. Instead Crude formed a doji just under the moving average and reinforces the importance of tomorrows Employment report. A strong report Friday could send the dollar higher and put pressure on Crude. A weak report could weaken the dollar and send Crude towards today’s high. I am looking for breakout trade Friday off of the report. I think an aggressive trader can buy a new high tomorrow or sell a new low. If we get a neutral report instead, Crude may repeat Thursday’s activity. Place your stop in line with your account size and risk tolerance.
High – 39.04
Low – 37.57
Last – 38.11
Daily Pivots for 4/1/16:
|
R2 |
39.71 |
|
R1 |
38.91 |
|
PIVOT |
38.24 |
|
S1 |
37.44 |
|
S2 |
36.77 |
|
|
For those interested I hold a biweekly livestock webinar on Wednesday April 6, at 3pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
