May Crude Oil traded lower during the overnight session for Thursday, April 14th falling to 40.84 as it tested support at the 200 DMA (40.98). The 200 DMA held as the IEA claims the world surplus in crude oil will drop from current levels (1.5 million bpd) to 200,000 barrels per day during the last six months of the year. The decline will come from increasing production declines from the US shale oil industry. The IEA also believes remaining financial sanctions on Iran will limit its ability to increase the rate of production for crude oil. Iran has increased production by 400,000 barrels a day since January to 3.3 million bpd and look to get it to 4 million bpd. It will take longer than expected to get there, according to the IEA. It also states that a deal to freeze production by OPEC – NOPEC producers will have a limited impact on global supply. Traders bid up Crude Oil on the news and took price to the day’s high at 42.16 as US traders came on board Thursday morning. The US session was dull and price drifted during the day before breaking down and settling at 41.50. Crude ranged after settlement and ended the day at 41.45. With the Doha meeting scheduled for April 17th (Sunday) I think Crude will wander aimlessly on Friday as traders anxiously wait for the results of the meeting.
High – 42.16
Low – 40.84
Last – 41.45
Daily Pivots for 4/15/16:
|
R2 |
42.80 |
|
R1 |
42.13 |
|
PIVOT |
41.48 |
|
S1 |
40.81 |
|
S2 |
40.16 |
|
|
For those interested I hold a biweekly livestock webinar on Friday April 15, at 3pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
