Déjà vu … How many times have we been here –the market gyrates as investors hand over the helm to traders because of the Fed uncertainty?
- The market got jittery yesterday after comments from the Fed officials but what it's really looking for is comments from Yellen.
What is it that investors fear – market irrationality or the US economy cannot withstand another rate hike? Are investors looking at Q1 as an example of what will happen if rates rise again?
I suspect both are true, but add to the mix another reality, a reality that can and probably will change.
- For Q1 2016, the blended earnings decline is -7.1%.
When the Fed finally announces another hike (probably June or July) and Q2 economic growth and Q2 earnings reports come out, money will flow back in. Why? Add the data below to the other data recently released and the economic picture is brighter.
- About 231 million passengers will fly on U.S. airlines from June through August, up 4 percent from the same period last year.
- Housing starts increased 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.17 million units last month, with builders ramping up the construction of single- and multi-family homes. Building permits rose 3.6 percent to a 1.12 million-unit rate.
- The S&P 500 Total Return Index actually set a new record price back in April. In other words, even though most investors missed it, the S&P actually quietly hit new all-time highs this year.
Forget the rips, buy the dips …