Mosaic has been stuck in a downtrend since peaking in early 2011, the cost of potash and fertilizer components falling dramatically with more competition coming online. That has hit the margins hard for Mosaic and other suppliers of potash. But this being a cyclical business, the huge run up in 2007/08 was burned off over a long period of time. While the stock is still well off those all time highs, when crippled you have to walk before you run. That is where Mosaic is at, and in the short term this could become a very brisk walk.
We like the break this week of the triangle to the upside but more importantly the very strong turnover. The MACD is now on a very strong buy signal confirmed, and the move up in relative strength is quite impressive. With resistance at the 200 ma just ahead (arrow), there could be a stall. This is also near the March highs, so a consolidation may soon be at hand. However, that pullback would be one to watch for a buy opportunity
