Crude Oil grinded higher on Thursday, July 14, 2016 following the Equity markets as they continued making new highs. The rally in Crude Oil was weak however, forming another inside candle and Thursday’s range was the smallest since May 13th. The Crude Oil rally tested trendline resistance at 45.72 and wasn’t able to stay above it. Today seemed to be a day traders sat back and waited for a news event to help guide their trading and it didn’t occur. The past two trading days may have created some confusion with the strong rally on Tuesday and then Wednesday’s reversal of that rally leading to indecision and therefore a narrow range. This narrow trading day may be helpful for tomorrow’s trade. Friday could be an interesting day. Will the traders with long positions or those with short positions be afraid to hold them over the weekend? I think the inside day/ narrow range candle will help traders make that decision. A breakout above Thursday’s high could cause shorts to panic and bid up Crude Oil (Crude will be above the trendline) and a breakdown below the low could lead to panic selling by traders with long positions. I would be a buyer above the Thursday high expecting a retest of resistance at 46.93 or would get short on a breakdown of the Thursday low expecting a retest of the week low at 44.42 and then towards the 100 DMA at 43.64. Place your stops in accordance with your account size and risk tolerance. Remain nimble.
High 45.80
Low 44.95
Last 45.50
Daily Pivots for 7/15/16:
|
R2 |
46.27 |
|
R1 |
45.88 |
|
PIVOT |
45.42 |
|
S1 |
45.03 |
|
S2 |
44.57 |
|
|
For those interested I hold a weekly livestock webinar on Friday, July 15, at 2:30pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon signup.
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
