Dollar Yen was kind and came back in line with the other two markets. The weekend update was forecasting a drop off the upper trend channel, today we got that drop,
It seems to be developing in an encouraging fashion so far.
The rally in wave ‘c’ black of the previous expanded flat correction to the upside definitely pushed the boundaries of the wave count.
If we get a continuation of the downside move, it will re-establish the dominant downward trend in wave ‘c’ grey.
Hourly chart:
You can see on the chart that I have a line placed at the wave ‘a’ high should the price move back under this line in an impulsive fashion it will add confidence to the wave count.
Today’s decline was a respite for the overall count, and we need to see it continue.
10 min chart:
Current wave: Bottoming in wave B Red.
Outlook: Higher, far higher, in a multi month rally which should take prices well above the 2015 high of 12600.
You can see on the chart that I have a line placed at the wave ‘a’ high should the price move back under this line in an impulsive fashion it will add confidence to the wave count.
Today’s decline was a respite for the overall count, and we need to see it continue.
On the 10 minute chart I have shown how a five wave decline to the down side might develop in an idealised fashion! So far, we seem to have a complete waves 1 through 4 on a minor degree. Another dip down tomorrow would see a complete five wave structure down on the 10 min chart.
Then we need confirming price action in the form of a three wave recovery off the lows to complete a 5/3 structure down.
The high at wave (b) grey is the invalidation line for this short term count.
So for tomorrow those are the two things I will be looking for.
A completion of a minor degree 5 waves down
and the high at 10433 to hold.
If this count is correct then there is an opportunity to trade off the completed minor wave structure.
Takeaways:
- Possibly completed wave (b) grey up.
- invalidation line for this short term count at 10433
- waiting for a short opportunity soon.
