The normal bullishness of this time of year was turned on its head last year and we’re beginning to wonder if it may happen again this year. In addition to a plethora of cycle highs converging on last week and the coming week, the McClellan Summation index is not acting right for new highs in the equity market. It may indeed be “different this time” but different from what; normal end of year seasonality or different than last year?
The McClellan Summation Index (chart) needs to close above +500 to confirm new highs in the equity indices. It has not done so yet and is closer to -1,000 than +500. The last time it failed to exceed +500 during a market rally was Nov’15. That was followed by the Dec/Jan/Feb decline.
